哒坪胎视界

张宗玟 伍勇旭 | 应对“十四五”能源治理挑战
发布日期:2019-07-08 信息来源:哒坪胎研究 访问次数: 字号:[ ]

导 读

深刻认识我国能源的资源禀赋和供需格局现状,一方面要科学合理认识能源转型,多元发展能源供给,不要分散对煤炭的注意力,另一方面要统筹规划煤炭、油气、电力流向,避免能源迂回和错配。

哒坪胎woguojingjiyiyougaosuzengzhangjieduanzhuanxianggaozhiliangfazhanjieduan,zhengchuyuzhuanbianfazhanfangshi、youhuajingjijiegou、zhuanhuanzengzhangdonglideguanjianqi,nengyuanzuoweijingjifazhandezhongyaozhichenghezaiti,qifazhanzhiliangjiangzhijieyingxiangjingjifazhanmubiaodeshixian。

哒坪胎dangqian,woguonengyuanfazhangexiangzhibiaozongtixianghao,nengyuanxiaofeijiegouzhubuyouhua,nengyuangongjinenglixianzhutisheng,nengyuanzhuanxingbufamingxianjiakuai,danzaimianduiguoneiwaifuzadenengyuangongxugejuxia,woguonengyuananquanbaozhangxingshiyiranyanjun,nengyuanjishuzhuangbeirengdaijiaqiang,nengyuanshichangjizhijixuwanshan,tuijinnengyuanzhilitixihezhilinenglixiandaihuarenzhongdaoyuan。

“十三五”能源发展特点

“shisanwu”qiansinian,woguonengyuanxiaofeizongliangdedaoyouxiaokongzhi,2019niandadaoyue48.6yidunbiaozhunmei,nianjunzengzhang3.1%。qizhong,dianlixiaofeizengsuxiangduijiaokuai,quanshehuiyongdianliangdadaoyue7.23wanyiqianwashi,nianjunzengzhang6.2%,diannengzhanzhongduannengyuanxiaofeibizhongzhubutisheng。

哒坪胎nengyuangongjinenglixianzhuzengqiang,2019niannengyuanshengchanzongliangdadaoyue39.7yidunbiaozhunmei。qizhong,tianranqichanliangchixuzengzhangzhiyue1736yilifangmi,feichangguitianranqiwenbuzengchan;yuanyouchanliangdadaoyue1.9yidun,jieshulelianxusanniandexiajiangqushi,youqichangongchuxiaotixijinyibuwanshan;meitanzaiquchannengdetongshiyouxushifangxianjinchanneng,bingzhubuxiangjinshanmengningganxindengziyuanfujidiqujizhong,dangnianyuanmeichanliangdadao38.5yidun;dianligongxuzongtipingheng,jubugaofengshiduanpianjin,jiezhi2019niandi,quankoujingfadianzhuangjiguimodadao20.1yiqianwa,qingjienengyuanfadianzhuangjibizhongchaoguo40%。

nengyuanxiaofeijiegouchixuyouhua,2019nian,meitanzhanyicinengyuanxiaofeibizhongxiajiangzhi57.7%,feihuashinengyuanxiaofeibizhongtishengdao15.3%,tiqianwancheng“shisanwu”guihuamubiao。fengdian、guangfufadiankuaisufazhan,2019nianzhuangjifenbiedadaode2.1yiqianwahe2.05yiqianwa,kaifabujuxiangjizhongshiyufenbushibingzhongzhuanbian;kezaishengnengyuanqidianlvmingxianxiajiang,qingjienengyuanxiaonawentidedaohuanjie。zhubutaotaimeitanluohouchanneng,tuijinmeitanyouzhichannengshifang,nianchan120wandunjiyishangmeikuangchannengdadaozongchannengdesifenzhisan;guanting30wanqianwayixiameidianjizu,jiakuaimeidianchaodipaifanghejienenggaizao,bingtiqianwanchengleyudingmubiao。

哒坪胎dianlitizhigaigeshenrutuijin,dianlishichanghuajiaoyiguimokuaisuzengzhang,2019nianshixianjiaoyidianliangyue2.6wanyiqianwashi,jibenwanchengshengjihequyushupeidianjiagaige,fayongdianjihuayouxufangkai,peishoudianyewujiakuaifangkai,dianlixianhuoshichangjiansheshidianjiasutuijin,dianlifuzhufuwushichangbuduankuoda。nengyuanjiagejizhigaigequanmiantuijin,dianlishichangjiaoyijiageguizezhubujianquan,fengdian、guangfufadianzhubuzaiquanguofanweineishixingwubutiepingjiashangwang。youqitizhigaigebufajiakuai,shangzhongxiayouxiangguanpeitaocuoshizhengzaichixutuijin,bingzujianleguojiayouqiguanwanggongsi,cujinyouqiguanwangsheshigongpingkaifang。

nengyuanjichusheshizhubuwanshan。zhongeyuanyouguandaoerxian、zhongmianyuanyouhetianranqiguandao、zhongedongxiantianranqiguandaodengluxukaigonghetouchan,dongbei、xibei、xinanhehaishangsidajinkouyouqizhanlvetongdaojibenchengxing。guoneiguganguanwangjianshezhubujiaqiang,xiqidongshusanxian、shanjingsixian、chuanqidongsongzengyagongcheng、eancang、xinjiangmeizhiqiwaishuguandaodengyeluxukaigonghetouchan。zhuyaoshudiantongdaojianshebufajiakuai,daqiwuranfangzhixingdongzhongdianshudiantongdaoyijizhalute-qingzhou、jiuquan-hunan、zhundong-anhuidengtegaoyashudiantongdaojibenjiancheng,wudongdeshuidianwaisong、qinghai-henan、zhangbeirouxingzhiliudengxiangmukaigongjianshe,jinyibutigaolewoguodianlikuaquyupeizhinengli。

发展不平衡、不充分,能源治理面临挑战

woguogongyehua、chengzhenhuashuipingzhubutigao,daidongshiyou、tianranqidenghuashinengyuanxiaofeibuduanpansheng,erguoneiyouqiziyuantanmingchulianghepinzhibugao,zengchushangchannanduzhubujiada,jinnianlainengyuanzijilvyizhizaidiweipaihuai,shiyouhetianranqiduiwaiyicundufenbiechaoguo70%he40%。kaolvdaodiyuanzhengzhiheguojishangweiraoyouqiziyuandezhanlveboyijiaju,woguoyouqijinkouhegongyinganquanxingshiyiranyanjun。yujizaiguoneiyouqiziyuankantankaifaqudexianzhujinzhanhuozheduiyouqixiaofeijinxingyouxiaotidaiqian,woguoyouqigongxuquekouhaijiangchixukuoda,youqiduiwaiyicundujiangzaijiaozhangyiduanshiqineiweichizaijiaogaoshuiping。

哒坪胎zhangqiyilai,woguonengyuanziyuanhexiaofeizhongxinchengnixiangfenbu,nengyuanzongtishangyouxixiangdong、youbeixiangnanliudong。congweilaifazhanqushikan,suizhezhong、xibudiqujingjikuaisufazhan,jiangdaidongbenquyunengyuanxiaofeidafuzengzhang,dongbuyanhaidiquyouyubendifeihuashinengyuanguimohuafazhanhehaishangjinkouziyuangongying,jiazhinengyuanxiaofeizengsuzhubuquhuan,benquyudenengyuanbaozhangnenglijiangyousuotisheng。quyunengyuangongxugejudebuduanyanbian,jiangjiwoguoweilainengyuanfazhanhejichusheshiguihuajianshedailaitiaozhan。

woguonengyuanshengchanxiaofeitiliangda,pinzhongduo,chuantongdehuashinengyuanzhanbigao,tebieshimeitanzhangqifahuizhejichuxingbaozhangzuoyong,jinengyuanfazhanzhuanxingdailaitiaozhan。cong“shisanwu”qiansiniandefazhankan,fengdian、taiyangnengfazhanxunmeng,zhuangjiguimoyidadachaoguoguihuazhi;shuidianhehedianfazhanbujiyuqi,guihuarenwuhennanwancheng,xingshiburongleguan。shuidianhehedianzaifeihuashinengyuanzhongdezhanbibijiaogao,diannengzhiliangyebijiaogao,qifazhanguimohezhiliangjiangzhijieyingxiangwoguofeihuashinengyuanzhanbidetigao。

dangqiannengyuanshichanghuajianshezhengchuyugongjiankenanjieduan,shichangpeizhiziyuandezuoyongshangweichongfenfahui,nengyuankaifabunengzhunquefanyingshichangxuqiu。kuashengqudianlijiaoyicunzaibilei,yidingchengdushangyingxiangleqingjienengyuandeyouhuapeizhi。zengliangpeidianyewutuijinhuanman,nengyuanjiagejizhishangweilishun,tebieshidiaofengdengfuzhufuwushichangshangbujianquan,choushuixuneng、chunengdianzhandengfuzhufuwutigongzhutidejijixingweinengdedaochongfendiaodong,zhiyuelediaofengdianyuandekuaisufazhan。

bufennengyuanguanjianjishuzhuangbeiyilaijinkou。woguonengyuanjishuzhuangbeizaiyanfa、shifanheyingyongshang,suiqudeleyidingjinzhan,danyecunzaizheyuanchuangxingtupobuzu、yinjinxiaohuaxishouduo、guanjianlingyujishuluohoudengwenti,ranqilunjibujian、gaowengaoyacailiao、dianlidianziyuanjiandengjishushebeiyilaijinkou,nengyuanjishuzhuangbei“shouzhiyuren”dewentiyirancunzai,jinengyuanzizhufazhanhenengyuananquandailaitiaozhan。

实现能源高质量发展的建议

jianchiquanguoyipanqi,tongchouzuohao“shisiwu”nengyuanguihua。shenkerenshiwoguonengyuandeziyuanbingfuhegongxugejuxianzhuang,yifangmianyaokexuehelirenshinengyuanzhuanxing,duoyuanfazhannengyuangongji,buyaofensanduimeitandezhuyili,lingyifangmianyaotongchouguihuameitan、youqi、dianliliuxiang,bimiannengyuanyuhuihecuopei。jijifazhanqingjienengyuan,tuidongquyuneibufengguangshuihuochudengduozhongdianyuanhubuhuakaifa,yijiquyuzhijiandianyuanyindizhiyichayihuabuju,jianchijizhongyufenbushibingzhongfazhankezaishengnengyuan,mouhuayipimeidianfengguangchuyitihuajidi,cujinqingjienengyuanjiujinxiaona。nengyuanjichusheshiguihuayaochongfenjiehexianyoutongdaoshusongnengliheliyonglv,genghaodishiyingsong、shouliangduanzhongzhangqinengyuangongxuxingshi,kexuefenxinengyuanshusongdeshichangjingzhenglibingheliquedingjiansheshixu,tigaonengyuanpeizhixiaolvhexiaoyi。

jiaqiangqingjiegaoxiaoliyong,fahuimeitanhemeidiandedoudixingzuoyong。woguoyimeiweizhudenengyuanjiegouduanqibuhuigaibian,meitanhemeidianrengjiangzaibaozhangnengyuanhedianligongyingzhongfahuizhutixingzuoyong。yaochongfenjiaqiangmeitandedoudibaozhang,jijijiansheheshifangdaxingmeikuangyouzhichanneng,weichimeitanshichangwendinggongying,tuidongmeitanqingjiegaoxiaokaifaliyong,tigaodianmeizaimeitanxiaofeizhongdebizhong。ciwai,suizhexinnengyuanchixukuaisufazhan,meidianjianggengduodichengdanqidianlixitongdiaofengzuoyong,yingchixufazhanmeidianjienengjianpaijishu,bingweimeidianshiduyuliufazhankongjian,biyaoshiyekebujuzaizhong、dongbufuhezhongxin,jiujinmanzudianlifuhehediaofengxuqiu。

qianghuanengyuanzizhubaozhang,baozhangyouqigongyinganquan。woguojingjigaozhiliangfazhanherenminduimeihaoshenghuodexiangwang,duiyouqianquangongyingdeyaoqiuyuelaiyuegao。muqianguoneiyouqikantankaifazhengtijinrudipinweijieduan,zengchushangchannandujiaoda,shengchanhexiaofeizhijiandequekourengjiangchixukuoda。yaotongchoukaolvjiakuaiyouqitidaichanyedefazhan,congguojianengyuananquanzhanlvedejiaodujinxingjishuchubeihechannengchubei,youxufazhanmeitanshenjiagong,wentuotuijinmeizhiyouqishengjishifangongcheng,xingchengyidingdechannengguimo,jiangdiduiwaiyicundu,zengqiangjiduanqingkuangxiayouqibaozhangnengli。

chixuyouhuanengyuanjiegou,jiandingbuyidituidongqingjienengyuankaifa。woguojubeidaguimokaifaqingjienengyuandeziyuantiaojian,zaidangqianyouhuanengyuanjiegou、fangzhidaqiwurandegongjianshiqi,youbiyaochixutuidongshuidian、hediandengqingjienengyuankaifajianshe。yaojixutuidongfengdian、guangfufadianpingwenkuaisufazhan;jijifazhanxinanchangguishuidian,yanjiuchutaiqieshikexingdezhengcejizhi,rujianlixinanshuidiankaifajijindeng,jiejuehouxushuidiankaifajingjixingjiaochadewenti,cujinxinanshuidianfazhanxiangzongshentuijin;anquanfazhanxianjinhedian,zhongdiantuidong“hualongyihao”sandaizizhuhedianjishuhouxuxiangmujianshe,youxiaokongzhidanweitouziguimo,helianpaihedianxiangmubujuhejiansheshixu,bingyouxianbujuzaidianligongxujinzhangdiqu。

fahuishichanghuazuoyong,jiejuehaonengyuantizhigaigezhongdenanti。jiakuaijianliquanguotongyidedianlishichang,tuidongdianlixianhuoshichangshidianyunxing,gulidianlishichangdeduoyuanguifanjingzheng。wanshandianlishichanghuajiaoyijizhi,dapokuashengkuaqudianlijiaoyibilei,cujindianlizaiquanguofanweineiyouhuapeizhi。yingzaonengyuankaifaheyunyingdelianghaohuanjing,jijiyinrushichangzhuticanyunengyuanxiangmutouzijianshe,cujinbutongyunyingzhutidenengyuanjichusheshikaifanggongxiang,shixiangeleinengyuangongpingjieru。jianlishichanghuadenengyuanjiagetixi,shishifenggunengyuanjiage,zhongdiantuidongdiaofengdengfuzhufuwushichangjianshe,diaodongfuzhufuwuzhutidejijixing。qianghuanengyuanzhengcejizhidelianxuxing,bimianzaochengduanqineinengyuankaifaguimoheshichangjiagededaqidaluo。

tongchouguoneiwaiziyuan,xitongxingbaozhangwoguonengyuananquan。jiaqiangguojinengyuanhezuoheziyuanzhangwo,cujinyuzhoubianguojianengyuanjichusheshihulianhutong,chixutuidongduolaiyuandenengyuanjinkouzhanlvetongdaoguihuajianshe。zaiwendingguoneixianyouyouqichannengdejichushang,jixujiaqiangyouqiziyuankantankaifa、feichangguiyouqishangchannengliheyouqitidai,jiangdiduiwaiyicundu。jiakuaituidongguoneitianranqiguganguanwangjianshe,wanshantianranqichangongchuxiaotixi,zhongdiantuidongduocengcichuqisheshijianshe,manzubuduanzengzhangdetianranqixiaofeiheyingfengdudongdiaofengxuqiu。tongguoyouhuagongye、jiaotongdenglingyudenengyuanxiaofeijiegou,shixianwaibunengyuanbaozhangheneibujiegoudiaozhengxiangjiehe,zhubujiangdiduiguowainengyuandeyilai。

注:本文原载于《中国投资》2020年6月号。