哒坪胎视界

陈佳鹏 | 基于煤基替代燃料损益分析视角的能源安全研究
发布日期:2019-07-23 作者:陈佳鹏 信息来源:哒坪胎研究 访问次数: 字号:[ ]

suizhewoguojingjidekuaisuzengzhang,riyizengzhangdeshiyouduiwaiyicunduchengweinengyuananquandetuchuwenti。muqianguojiyoujiabodongqifujiaoda,geguoyingduinengyuananquanchangyongdeshouduanshijianlishiyouzhanlvechubei,xunzhaoheshidejiaotongtidainengyuan(tidairanliao)chengweibaozhangnengyuananquandeyanjiuredian。

哒坪胎benwencongnengyuananquanrushou,fenxiqineihan,bingguinatichunengyuananquantixihekuangjiatu,zaicijichushangjianlinengyuananquansunyifenximoxing,bingjiehemeijiyetiranliaoanli,fenbieyanjiuleshiyouzhanlvechubeidezuiyouguimohetidairanliaodezuiyouguimo,yijiliangzhezaibaozhangnengyuananquanzhongdexianghuzuoyongguanxi。

一、能源安全内涵分析

哒坪胎weilejietidairanliaozaibaozhangnengyuananquanzhongdeweizhihezuoyong,shouxianxuyaoduinengyuananquandeneihanyouyigechongfendelijie。

(一)能源安全综述

nengyuananquanyuanyu1973niandenengyuanweiji,zhuyaojujiaoyuruhechulichanyouguodeshiyougongyingzhongduan。suizheshijiandetuiyi,geguoduinengyuananquandelijiecunzaiyidingchayi。duiyuwoguoeryan,nengyuangongyingbuyaochengweijingjikuaisufazhandepingjingzeshimuqianzhuyaodenengyuananquanguanzhudian。ciwai,nengyuananquandeguanzhudianhaijiangbaokuoruhexiaochuweilairenhekenengdeyouyuzhongdongdengdijushibuwendingdengyuanyinyinfadeshiyougongyingzhongduanwenti。

jianqiaonengyuanzixungongsi(cera)zhuxidannier·yejin(daniel yergin)zai2007nian3yue22rimeiguozhongyiyuanwaijiaoguanxiweiyuanhui“shiyouyilaizaiwaijiaoheguofangzhongdeyiyi”tingzhenghuishangtidao[1]:rujin,nengyuananquandedingyixuyaokuozhanzhiduizhenggenengyuangongyinglianhejichusheshidebaohu,nengyuandexianghuyilaiyijinengyuanmaoyiguimodezengzhangyaoqiushengchanguohexiaofeiguozhijianbuduanhezuo,yiquebaozhenggegongyingliandeanquan。tarenweiduizhongguoheyindulaishuo,nengyuananquanshouxianshibaozhengtamenyouzugoudenengyuanlaizhichijingjifazhan,bingfangzhikenengdaozhishehuihezhengzhidongluandenengyuanbuzudeqingkuangriyiehua。yejinhaitidaoshengwujishuzainengyuanfangmiandeyunyongkenengduinengyuananquanchanshengzhongyaoyingxiang。

哒坪胎kenneth lieberthalrenwei,zhongguonengyuanbuanquandegenyuanzaiyuzhongguoqiangjingdejingjizengzhangcijilenengyuanxuqiudemengzeng,bingyuanchaoguoneinengyuangongyinghejichusheshidechengshounengli[2],erqiezhongguojiangyanzhongyilaibosiwandiqugongyingshiyouxuqiudejiaodafene;xiangyingdi,yuelaiyueduodejinkoufenexuyaochuanxinghailuyaodao。tarenweizhongguodenengyuanzhengceshizhongshangzhuyide,zaibuduanzhengquhaiwaifeneyoudetongshi,rengxuyaoyikaoshichangdelilianglaihuoqudabufendejinkoushiyou。tahaizhichu:zuoweishijieshangshuyishuerdenengyuanxiaofeihejinkouguo,meiguohezhongguoyongyoushilibaozhangshijiedeshiyougongyinghejiagewending,yingzhidingyigeyouxiaodenengyuanfazhanzhanlve。

哒坪胎dennis blairhekenneth lieberthalzai《yifanfengshun——hailuanquandeshenhuayuxianshi》yiwenzhongtichu[3]:xianjindeguojishiyouhangyunbingmeiyouxiangxiangzhongneimecuiruo,duiqizaochengyanzhonghechixuzhongduandejihuiweihuqiwei。tamenzhichushiyouhaiyunzhongzuijuqianzaiweixiandeyousangedifang:huoermuzihaixia、maliujiahaixiahexinjiapohaixia,danzhiyouyizhiqiangdarumeiguodehaijuncaiyoukenengyanzhongraoluanshiyouyunshu,danmeiguozhengzhiliyubaozhanggonghaidehaiyunanquan。lishiyebiaoming,zhongdadehaiyunzhongduanshifeichanghanjiande。tamenhaizhichu:zhiyaobufashengquanmianzhanzheng,wulunhaidao、kongbuxijihaishirenheguojiadouwufazuzhihuofengsuohaishangtongdao。zhiyoumeiguojubeiquanmiankongzhihaishangtongdaodenengli,erzhong、e、ri、yinzaijunshizhuangbei、houqingongyinghecaozuojingyanfangmianyumeiguojuyouershiniandechaju,wufayumeiguokangheng。zhiyouzaitaihaichuxianzhanshishi,meiguocaikenenghuiyiwuliduizhongguocaiqufengsuoxingdong,lanjiezhongguodeshiyouhezhongyaowuziyunshu。

游弋在波斯湾的美军航母战斗群                          伊朗革命卫队在进行战斗演习

哒坪胎michael c. lynchrenweinengyuananquanzhishiduanqizhongduanwenti,bukenengchuxianzhangqizhongduan,wentidebenzhishijingjihejiagewentierbushigongyingduanquewenti[4]。ziyuanquefadeguojiaduiguojinengyuanshichangdeguofendanyou,shizaochengduinengyuananquanwujiedeyigegenbenyuanyin。yigeguojiazhiyaoyuanyifuchuzugougaoangdejiage,zongnengquebaonengyuandegongji,dangaoangdeshiyoujiagehuiyinqijingjidesunshi,sunshidaxiaowanquanqujueyushiyoujinkoudeguimo。shiyouweijiduiquanqiuchanshengyingxiang,bukenengyouxuanzedizhizhenduigebieguojia。duikangshiyouzhongduandezuiyouxiaoshouduanshizhanlvechubei,ertidairanliaoduinengyuananquandezuoyongyouxian,fazhantidairanliaobixuzuoyangedeshouyisunshifenxi。

哒坪胎xuchengendengrenweishiyouanquanshizhishangshishichangxuqiuanquan,qihexinwentishiwendingdegongying、helidejiage[5]。lishijingyanbiaomingshiyougongyingzhongduanwangwangyinqiyoujiashangzhang,danyoujiashangzhangbingfeidouyushiyougongyingzhongduanyouguan。duiyuzhengchangdeyoujiabodong,helideshichangjizhijiukeyidiaojie,bushuyushiyouanquanwenti;jinkoushiyoudeshuliangyijizhanxiaofeiliangbilidegaodibingbushihengliangshiyouanquanchengdudejuedingxingyinsu,guanjianshijinkougongyingdewendingxinghejinkoujiagedehelixing。tamenhaitichulebaozhangwoguoshiyouanquandeduozhongsilu:kaiyuanjieliu、quanqiuhuahezuo、shiyoujinkouduoyuanhua、shichanghuayunzuo、fazhantidainengyuan、jiaqiangkejijinbu、jianlishiyouchubeitigaoyingbiannengli。

哒坪胎zongshangsuoshu,nengyuananquandeneihanzaiguoqujishinianyijingyoulehendadegaibian:nengyuananquanbujinjinshiyingduichanyouguodegongyingzhongduan,haiyingkuozhanzhizhenggegongyingliandebaohu,danxuyaozhuanbianduishiyouyunshuanquanguofendanyoudeguannian。shijishang,guojishiyouhangyunshixiangduianquande,bukenengchuxianzhangqizhongduan。nengyuananquanzhishiduanqizhongduandewenti,qibenzhishijingjihejiagewenti。tidairanliaoxuyaocongbaozhangnengyuananquandejiaoduzuoyangedejingjixingfenxi,dingliangfenxitidairanliaofazhanguilv。

(二)能源安全体系

1.能源安全体系框架图

jiyuduishangshunengyuananquanwenxiandelijie,woguoyingshulixindenengyuananquanguan。tu1zhanshilexindeguojianengyuananquantixikuangjiatu,tuzhongjiantoubiaoshilaiyuanxiangjuedingheyingxiangzhixiangxiang。

 图1 能源安全体系框架

nengyuananquanbaokuoziyuananquanhejiageanquanliangbufen。

哒坪胎ziyuananquandeyaosubaokuoziyuanyongyouliang、duiziyuanyongyouzhedezhengzhiyingxiangli、ziyuandejunshikongzhinengliheziyuanyunshunengli。ziyuanyongyouliangbenzhishangqujueyuguojiadejingjishili,youqishiduiguowaiziyuandeyongyou。duiziyuanyongyouzhedezhengzhiyingxianglishizhidiyuanzhengzhinengli,beihoudebenzhizhichengshijingjishilihejunshinengli,waijiaoshishishishouduan,chuantongyouyishiyoushihefabao。ziyuandejunshikongzhinenglishizhengzhideyanxuhezuihoujiejueshouduan。ziyuanyunshunenglibaokuohaishanghangxianheshuyouguanxiandekongzhi,yijizaochuannengliheyunshuchuanduideyongyou。

哒坪胎yingxiangjiageanquandeyaosubaokuoquanqiugongxushichangdegongxupinghengzhuangkuangyijiguojishiyoulongduanzuzhi(ruoupeike)duishiyoujiagedecaozuonengli。quanqiugongxushichangshoudaosifangmianyinsudeyingxiang:ziyuananquanxing,zhanlveshiyouchubeiliang,nengyuanxiaolv,tidainengyuandefazhanshuliang。ziyuananquanxingshizhiziyuanchubeihegongyingnengli(baokuobeiyongchanneng)。guojishiyoulongduanzuzhihaowuyiwenyaozhuiqiuqijingjiliyizuidahua,danqikongzhishichangjiagedeqituhexingweishouxianshoudaodiyuanzhengzhideyueshu。ciwaihaishoudaojiageguogaokenengdaozhixuqiuweimi、qizhangqijingjiliyishousundekeguanyueshu。

2.石油战略储备和替代燃料在能源安全中的作用

哒坪胎zaixuqiuquedingdetiaojianxia,quanqiugongxushichangshoudaoyingxiangdeyinsuzhong,ziyuanchubeihegongyingnengli、zhanlveshiyouchubeilianghenengyuanxiaolvshibaozhengshiyoushichanganquandechuantongshouduan,qizhongshiyouzhanlvechubeishicujinshiyoushichangduanqipinghengdezuizhijieheyouxiaodeshouduan,shixianxingduifuduanqishiyouzhongduanhejiagefeishengdezuizhongyaoshouduan[4]。tabujinnengyanhuanshiyouzhongduandeyingxiang,yenengtidaizhongduandegongyingliang。

原油储存库

xiangduichuantongshouduaneryan,tidairanliaoshibaozhengquanqiuheguojiashiyouanquandexinshouduanhexinshiwu。tadezuoyongzhuyaoshijiangdibenguoshiyouxiaofeiqiangdu,zaishiyouweijilailinshikeshaoshouganrao,jianqinggaoyoujiajiguojiajingjidailaidesunshi。youyutidairanliaodetouzida、chengbengao、fazhanzhouqizhang,yinciqihuodongshuipingdi,duishijieshiyoushichangzhiyouzhangqihehuanmandezuoyongxiaoguo[4]。

国家能源集团鄂尔多斯煤制油分公司厂区

tu1shijishangyeduishiyouzhanlvechubei、tidairanliaoheqitaweihushiyouanquandecuoshidexianghuguanxizuoleyidingchengdudebiaoshu。tuzhongyouxiajiaobiaozhu“quandian”detiaomubiaoshixuyaohuafeijingjichengbendecuoshi,shiyouzhanlvechubeihetidairanliaoshiqizhongdeliangzhong。xianran,youxiandecailihuazainalishixuyaoxitongxingsikaohezonghequanhengde,duiyuzenyangjianlizhanlvechubeihuofazhantidairanliaolaishuo,cunzailiyiquanhengwenti。duiyuruhecongshouyihechengbenpinghengdejiaoduquedinggezishiyidefazhanguimo,xuyaojianlinengyuananquansunyimoxingjinxingfenxi。

二、能源安全损益分析原理

meiguoxiangshulingguojiashiyanshicongbaozhangshiyougongyinganquanjiaoduduishiyouzhanlvechubeidezuiyouguimojinxingguodinglianghuadeyanjiu[6][7][8][9]。zhongguogongchengyuanyejiushiyouanquanhechubeizhanlvejinxingguoyanjiu,duiwoguoshiyouchubeideguimojinxingguodingxingfenxiheweilaiguimoyuce[5]。muqianguojishangduiyutidairanliaozaishiyougongyinganquandezuoyongdaduoweidingxingfenxi,quefadingliangjisuanfenxi。

benwencankaolemeiguoxiangshulingguojiashiyanshidingliangyanjiudefangfa,bashiyouzhanlvechubeizuiyouguimodejianmofangfa,genjushiyouzhanlvechubeihetidairanliaoduiyunengyuananquandebutongzuoyongjili,kuozhandaojisuanshiyouzhanlvechubeihetidairanliaofazhandezuiyouguimo。moxingdeyuanlizaiyufenxitongguozheiliangzhongshouduanbaozhangnengyuananquanguochengzhongsuosunshidejingjichengbenhehuodedejingjishouyi,zaisunheyizhijianxunzhaoyigepinghengdeyouhuajieguo。gubenwenjiangcimoxingchengweinengyuananquansunyifenximoxing。

哒坪胎duiyujianlishiyouzhanlvechubei(spr)huofazhantidairanliao(alf),jingjichengbenzhuyaobaokuojichusheshijianshechengben、yunxingweihuchengbenhegoumaiziyuanhuoranliaodexiangguanchengben。duiyutidairanliaolaishuo,haiyingbaokuoxiangguandeco2chulichengben,zheixiechengbendoukeyizhijiejisuanchulai。jianlizhanlvechubeihuofazhantidairanliaonengdedaohezhongshouyini?daanbingbuxianeryijian,yinweizheizhongshouyizhiyouzaishiyouzhongduandeshihoucainengxianxianchulai[6][7],qiyuanlirutu2suoshi。

图2 SPR和ALF的收益计算原理示意

哒坪胎guojishiyoushichanggongjiliangyidanmingxiandiyuqizhengchanghuoyuqidexuqiuliang,jifashengshiyouzhongduan,jiangyingxiangguojishiyoushichangdegongxupingheng,zaochengyoujiadeshangzhang,congerhuizaochengbenguoshiyoujinkouewaichengbendesunshi。lingwai,youyushiyouduanqueheyoujiashangzhangjiangzaochengbenguogdpdesunshi,zhuyaobaokuosanbufen:(1)bumenjiandiaozheng,biaoxianweirenlihezibendengshengchanziliaotongguoshichangzaigeshengchanbumenjianzhongxinfenpei,rulianyouchanggongrenxiagang,zixingchechangzhaogong;(2)chizhixiaoying,biaoxianweiyouyuduiweilaishichangchiguanwangtaidueryinqidetouziheshengchanxiajiang;(3)xiaofeixingshibianhuayinqishengchanziliaozaifenpei,ruxinjianjienengshengchanxian,tingyonglaoshengchanxian。

哒坪胎jianlishiyouzhanlvechubeihuofazhantidairanliao,jiushiweilejinkenengdibimianzheibufensunshi,erbimiandesunshijiushitamendeshouyile。tu3miaoshulefazhantidairanliaodeshouyihedaijia,shifoucunzai“zuijiadian”、yijiruhexunzhao“zuijiadian”shitidairanliaosunyifenxizhongdeguanjianwenti。benwennijiehemeijitidairanliaoanli,tongguoshuxuejianmodefangfajinyibudingliangmiaoshuheshixian“zuijiadian”。

图3 替代燃料损益分析计算原理示意

三、煤基替代燃料案例分析

哒坪胎woguoshiyigeduomeishaoyouqueqideguojia,suoyizaifazhantidairanliaodeguochengzhong,yinggaiyouxiankaolvmeijitidairanliao。benwenxuanqumeizhijiezhiyouweiyanjiuduixiang,duiwoguofazhantidairanliaojinxingqingjingfenxi,jisuanfazhanmeijitidairanliaodechengbenheshouyi,bingtongguojisuanqijingshouyi,fenxishifouyinggaifazhantidairanliao,yinggaifazhanduodaguimodetidairanliao。benwenxuanqu2010—2030niandeshujujinxingsangeqingjingfenxi:shiyouzhanlvechubeianlifenxi、tidairanliaoanlifenxi、zuheanlifenxi。

(一)数据输入

表1 模型关键参数假设

(二)石油战略储备最优规模分析

woguospranlifenxi,zhongdianjisuanjianlisprdejingshouyi,bingfenxishifouyinggaijianlispr,jianliduodaguimodespr。tu4zhanshilebutongsprguimoxiadesunyiqingkuang。

 图4 不同SPR规模下的损益

congtu4keyikanchu:zongzhichuyusprdeguimochengxianxingguanxi,erbimianshiyoujinkousunshihebimiangdpsunshizeyusprguimochengyidingdefeixianxingguanxi。youcidechujielun:dao2030nian,woguoyinggaijianliyidingguimodespr,bingzai1.9yidunshijiangyouyue1500yiyuandezuidashouyi。

1.9yidundeguimo,shizongshiyouxuqiuliang7.4yidundeyue1/4,zheiyuyouxieguojiadeshiyouchubeizhanlvexiangsi,jiyiguoneisangeyuedeshiyouxuqiuliangweibiaozhunjianlishiyouzhanlvechubei[5]。

(三)煤基替代燃料最优规模分析

youyucaiyongmeijitidairanliao,jianghuichanshengewaideco2paifang,zheibufenco2dechulichengben,yeyingbaokuozaitidairanliaodechengbenzhong。

tu5zhanshilebutongmeizhiyouguimoxiadesunyiqingkuang,weiletebiezhanshiyouyumeijitidairanliaochanshengdeewaico2dechulichengben,tuzhongjiangco2chulifeiyongtilianchulaidanduhuaxian。

图5 不同煤变油规模下的损益

哒坪胎congtu5keyikanchu:meibianyoudeshengchanchengbenhebimiandejinkousunshishiyingxiangzuizhongjingshouyidelianggezhongyaoyinsu。co2chulifeiyongyeburongxiaoshi,danfazhantidairanliaoduibimiangdpsunshidezuoyongyouxian。jingshouyiquxianyouyigezuiyoudian,jidao2030nian,woguoyinggaifazhanguimowei1.2yidundemeizhiyou,cishijianghuodezuidashouyiyuewei300yiyuan。

(四)石油战略储备与煤基替代燃料同时发展最优规模分析

qianwenfenbieduidandujianlishiyouzhanlvechubeihefazhanmeijitidairanliaojinxingleanlifenxi,zuoweiyingduinengyuananquandelianggebutongshouduan,ruguotongshijianlishiyouzhanlvechubeihefazhanmeijitidairanliao,jianghuiyouduodadeshouyi?tamengezidezuijiaguimoyoujiangshiduoshao?tamenxianghuzhijianjiangyouheyingxiang?

哒坪胎benwenyijiuxuanqu2010—2030niandeshuju,duizheixiewentizhankaiyanjiu,jisuanjieguorutu6suoshi,qizhongzuotuweisanweilititu,youtuweiduiyingdedenggaoxiantu。

图6 不同石油战略储备和替代能源规模下的净收益

congtu6keyikanchu,cunzaizuijiadeshiyouzhanlvechubeihetidainengyuanguimo,shiwoguozaiyingduishiyouzhongduanshiyouzuidadeshouyi。jisuanjieguobiaomingzaijianli1.7yidunshiyouzhanlvechubeihefazhan0.7yiduntidairanliaoshi,jiangyouyue1600yiyuandezuidashouyi。congdenggaoxiantukeyikanchu,zaizuijiaguimofujin,qishouyiyejiaoda,suoyituzhongzhongxinyuanquanneidedianjunkeyirenweishijiaoyouguimo,jidao2030nian,woguojianshe1.5~2yidunshiyouzhanlvechubei,tongshifazhan0.5~1yidundetidainengyuan,jiangyoujiaodadeshouyi。

哒坪胎yuqianmianlianggeanlidefenxijieguoxiangbi,zuoweiyingduinengyuananquandeliangzhongbutongshouduan,shiyouzhanlvechubeihetidairanliaoyouyidingdelianxi,tu7zhanshilezheizhongxianghuzuoyongguanxi。

图7 石油战略储备规模和煤变油规模的相互作用

congtu7keyidechuyixiajidianjielun:

liangzhongshouduanyouyidingdebuchongzuoyong,jiduofazhanmeijitidairanliao,jiukeyishaojiansheshiyouzhanlvechubeiguimo,fanzhiyiran;

liangzhongshouduanduiyunengyuananquandexiaoguobuxiangtong,xiangbieryan,shiyouzhanlvechubeishibaozhangnengyuananquandezuiyouxiaodeshouduan,zongshouyilimiandejuedabufenlaiziyushiyouzhanlvechubei,ermeijitidairanliaozhishiyigebuchongdeshouduan。

dangshiyouzhanlvechubeijianshedaoyidingdeguimo(yue3yidun)shi,fazhanmeijitidairanliaobingbuhuichanshengewaideshouyi。

tebiezhidezhichudeshi,benwenzhiyimeizhijiezhiyouweidaibiaojinxinglemeijitidairanliaodeanlifenxi,qiezaijinxingfenxishijiashebuzaifazhanqitameijitidairanliao。danweilaikenengdemeijitidairanliaohaibaokuojiachun、erjiami、xitingdeng,ruguokaolvshangshutidairanliaodetongshifazhan,zhixujianganlifenxishujushuruzhongdemeijitidairanliaochengben、xiaolvdeng,yongtongshifazhandezongheshujuqudai,jikejisuanchugezhongmeijitidairanliaogongtongfazhanshidezuiyouguimo。

(五)煤基替代燃料案例分析中关键参数的敏感性分析

jinnianguojishiyoujiagebodongjiaoda,weishianlifenxidejieguogengweikexin,benwenjiangyijuxianshideqingkuang,duisunyimoxingzhongdeguanjiancanshujinxingminganxingfenxi。zaiyingxiangnengyuananquandegegeyinsuzhong,gdp/youjiadanxingxishuheyoujiashiqizhongzuizhongyaodelianggecanshu,benjiejiangduitamenjinxingminganxingfenxi。

1.GDP/油价弹性系数的敏感性分析

shiyoujiagedezhangfujiangduiguominshengchanzongzhi(gdp)chanshengyidingdeyingxiang,zheiyiguanxitixianzaigdp/youjiadanxingxishushang。aweibuch[12]zai2006nianduigeyanjiuzhonggdp/youjiadanxingxishujinxinglezongshu。congzhongkeyikanchu,butongdezuozheyongbutongdemoxingsuanchulaidejieguochayifeichangda。

哒坪胎yingxianggdp/youjiadanxingxishuzhuyaoyousangeyinsu:shiyoujinkouyicundu、danweigdpdeyouhaoshuipingheyoujiashuiping。benwengenjubutongwenxiandeyanjiu,duiwoguodegdp/youjiadanxingxishufenbiequ-0.01、-0.02、-0.03jinxingminganxingfenxi,jieguorutu8suoshi。

danxingxishu=-0.01

danxingxishu=-0.02

danxingxishu=-0.03

图8 GDP/油价弹性系数对能源安全收益的影响

danxingxishudedaxiao,biaomingyoujiaduiwoguojingjisuoyinqidechongjidedaxiao。danxingxishudejueduizhiyueda,biaomingwoguojingjishouyoujiayingxiangjiuyueda,fanzhiyiran。congtu8keyikanchu,gdp/youjiadanxingxishuduiyushiyouzhanlvechubeizuiyouguimoyingxiangjiaoda,erduitidairanliaoguimodeyingxiangjiaoxiao。danxingxishucong-0.01biandao-0.02he-0.03shi,shiyouzhanlvechubeidezuiyouguimoyou1.1yidun,biandao1.7yidunhe2.2yidun,ermeibianyouguimoyou0.5yidun,biandao0.7yidunhe0.9yidun。

jieguoxianshi,suizhegdp/youjiadanxingxishujueduizhidezengjia,woguoxuyaojianlideshiyouzhanlvechubeiguimoyejiangzengjia,fazhangengduodetidairanliao,suohuodedebaozhangnengyuananquandejingshouyiyejiangzengda。

2.油价的敏感性分析

weileyanjiuyoujiaduitidairanliaozuiyouguimodeyingxiang,benwenduiyoujiadexiaofubiandongduitidairanliaoguimodeyingxiangdeminganxingfenxi。jieguorutu9suoshi。xuyaoshuomingdeshi,zheilideyoujiabingbubiaoshidangqianzhi,ershibiaoshiduicongxianzaidao2030nianyoujiadepingjunqiwangzhi。

youjia=65meiyuan/tong

youjia=70meiyuan/tong

youjia=75meiyuan/tong

图9 油价对能源安全收益的影响

congtu9keyikanchu,youjiaxiaofubodongduiyutidairanliaozuiyouguimoyingxiangjuda,erduishiyouzhanlvechubeiguimodeyingxiangjiaoxiao。jieguoxianshi,dangyoujiadiyumeitong65meiyuanshi,buyinggaifazhantidairanliao,erdangyoujiadayu75meiyuanshi,yinggaidalifazhantidairanliao。lingwai,suizheyoujiadezengzhang,baozhangnengyuananquandejingshouyiyejiangzengda。

congshangmiandejieguokeyikanchu,youjiaduiyushiyouzhanlvechubeihetidairanliaozuiyouguimoyingxiangjuda。zaibutongdeyoujiaxia,buyidingcunzaizuiyouguimo,jiaoduodeqingxingshiyaomekeyidalifazhantidairanliao,yaomebubiyaofazhantidairanliao。yibanlaishuo,zaiyoujiapiangaodeqingkuangxia,yinggaidalifazhantidairanliao;fanzhi,zebuyinggaifazhantidairanliao。

四、结论

1.nengyuananquandebenzhishijingjihejiagewenti,erbushigongyingduanquewenti,nengyuananquanbaokuoziyuananquanhejiageanquan。zaihenzhangdeshijianchidunei,nengyuananquanzhuyaoshijiageanquan。

2.shiyouzhanlvechubeihetidairanliaoshibaozhangnengyuananquandeliangzhongbutongshouduan,qishouyizhuyaolaiyuanyuzaishiyougongyingfashengzhongduanshi,suobimiandejinkousunshihegdpsunshi。zaijianlizhanlvechubeihuofazhantidairanliaoshi,cunzailiyiquanhengdewenti,xuyaoxitongxingsikaohezonghequanhenglibi。

3.tongguoduinengyuananquandechengbenyushouyijianmofenxibiaoming,zaibaozhangnengyuananquandeguochengzhong,shiyouzhanlvechubeihemeijitidairanliaojunyouyidingdezuiyouguimo。zaijizhunqingjingjiashexia,tongshijianli1.5~2yidunshiyouzhanlvechubeihe0.5~1yiduntidairanliaoshi,duiyubaozhangnengyuananquanjuyoujiaodadeshouyi。

4.jianlishiyouzhanlvechubeihefazhantidairanliaoduiyubaozhangnengyuananquanyouyidingdebuchongzuoyong,jiduofazhantidairanliao,jiukeyishaojiansheshiyouzhanlvechubeiguimo,fanzhiyiran;liangzhongshouduanduiyunengyuananquandexiaoguobuxiangtong,xiangbieryan,shiyouzhanlvechubeishibaozhangnengyuananquandezuiyouxiaodeshouduan,zongshouyidejuedabufenlaiziyushiyouzhanlvechubei,tidairanliaozhishiyigebuchongshouduan。

哒坪胎5.zaibaozhangnengyuananquandeguochengzhong,gdp/youjiadanxingxishushiyingxiangshiyouzhanlvechubeidezuizhuyaodecanshu。

哒坪胎6.zaijinxingtidairanliaofazhanjueceshi,yaochongfenkaolvdaoweilaiyoujiadezoushi,bingzuoxiangyingdesunyifenxi。

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注:原文载于《中国煤炭》2017年第3期,本次发表做了较大改动。