哒坪胎视界

齐景丽 申传龙 王凡 霍正元 | 我国石油消费格局与趋势研究
发布日期:2019-07-21 作者:齐景丽 申传龙 王凡 霍正元 信息来源:哒坪胎研究 访问次数: 字号:[ ]

摘 要

我国石油消费将由“能源化”时代迈入“材料化”时代。深度炼化一体化是“石油材料化”的实现途径,多元化原料生产化工材料将作为石油消费的战略性补充,石油消费产业安全应纳入新时期我国石油安全的重要内容。

关键词: 石油消费;深度炼化一体化;多元化;产业安全


哒坪胎shiyouxiaofeitujingzhuyaobaokuojiaotongyunshuranliaohegongyeshengchanyuanliao。2019nianwoguojiagongyuanyou6.52yidun,shengchanchengpinyou(qi、mei、chaiyouheji)3.6yidun,zhanjiagongliangde55%,rengranshishiyouxiaofeidezhuyaolingyu。zonghekaolvjingjizengzhanglv、qichebaoyouliangjixianxingcuoshi、xinnengyuanqichetidaidengyinsu,womenrenwei,shiyoudenengyuanshuxingriyijianruo,cailiaoshuxingzhujianzengqiang,shiyouxiaofeijiangyou“nengyuanhua”shidaimairu“cailiaohua”shidai。

一、我国石油消费格局

woguoshiyouzhuyaoyongyunengyuan、huagongcailiaoliangdalingyu。qizhong,nengyuanyongtuzhuyaohangainongye、shangye、jumin、gongye(chuhuagong)、jiaotongdengbumen。2000nian,woguoshiyouxiaofeizongliangyuewei2.2yidun,yongyunengyuanhehuagongcailiaolingyufenbiewei1.9yidun、0.2yidun,fenbiezhanshiyouxiaofeizongliangde86%he9%。suizhewoguogongyehuahechengzhenhuajinchengjiakuai,gongkuangqiyesuoxuderanliaozengjia,ladongshiyouderanliaoxuqiukuaisuzengzhang,2017niandadao4.1yidun,zhanshiyouxiaofeiliangdebizhongwei70%。huagongcailiaolingyudeshiyouxiaofeiyegaosuzengzhang,xiaofeiliangyou2000niande0.2yidunzengzhangzhi2017niande0.99yidun,zhanshiyouxiaofeidebizhongjiao2000niantigao8gebaifendian、zhi17%。

图1 我国石油作为能源和化工的消费结构

数据来源:中国能源统计年鉴。

muqianshiyoudezhongduanxiaofeizhuyaoyongzuojiaotongranliao。fenpinzhongkan,qiyouxiaofeizhuyaoyouchengyongchebaoyouliangdekuaisuzengzhangladong。2000nianyilaiwoguochengyongchejinglilebaofashizengzhang。zhi2017nian,baoyouliangzengsushizhongbaochizai10%yishang,ladonglewoguoqiyouxiaofeikuaisuzengzhang;2018nianqi,woguochengyongchexiaoliangyougaozengzhangjinrudaopingwenzengzhangdehuandangqi,qiyouxiaofeijinruzhongdisufazhanjieduan。chaiyoufangmian,yinwoguodazongshangpinxuqiujishujiaoda,jiaotongyunshuyongyoudedaoyoulizhicheng。woguodiyuliaokuo,ziyuangongjiyuxuqiuchengnixiangfenbu,cuishengledazongshangpindewuliuyunshuxuqiu,jiazhidianshang、kuaidixingyexunsufazhan,jinyibutuigaohuowuzhouzhuanliang,ladongyoupinxuqiu。meiyouxiaofeizhuyaoyongyulvkehangkongchuxing。2000nianyilai,minhanglvkezhouzhuanliangpingjunzengsudadao15%,zhichengmeiyouxiaofeichengweichengpinyouzhongzengzhangzuikuaideyoupin。suizhewoguojuminshouruhexiaofeipinzhibuduanshengji,jiazhiminhangyunshuhejichangbaozhangnenglibuduanjiaqiang,woguominhangzhouzhuanliangrengjiangbaochigaosuzengzhang。

中国石油加油站

二、我国石油需求展望

(一)成品油需求预测

哒坪胎chengpinyouzhuyaobaokuoqiyou、meiyouhechaiyoudeng。

1. 汽油

qiyouxiaofeiyiyougaozengzhangzhuanxiangzhongdisuzengzhang,zengsujinruhuandangqi。2008nian-2018niande10nianjian,bansuizheguoneijingjizengzhang、guominshourushuipingtigaoyijiguoneigonglujichusheshijianshedekuaisutuijin,guoneiqiyoubiaoguanxiaofeiliangkuaisuzengzhang,tebieshi“shierwu”qijianyi7.5%yishangdenianjunzengsugaosuzengzhang,jin3nianzengsuhuiluozhi3%shangxia。2019nianwoguoqiyoubiaoguanxiaofeiliangdawei1.25yidun,yuewei2010nianqiyouxiaofeiliangde1.76bei。

 图2 2010年-2019年我国汽油消费量及年均增长率

数据来源:国家统计局数据整理。

zhongzhangqiwoguoqiyouxiaofeijiangbaochizhongdisuzengzhang。zonghekaolvchengyongchezengsu、baigongliyouhao、ranliaojiachun、ranliaoyichun、meizhiyou、diandongqichedengtidainengyuandengyinsudeyingxiang,zongheyuji2025nian、2030nian、2035nianwoguoqiyouxuqiufenbiewei1.58yidun、1.52yidun、1.34yidun。

2. 煤油

哒坪胎minhangyekuaisufazhanjiangtuidongzhongguomeiyouxuqiukuaisuzengzhang。gaigekaifangyilai,woguomeiyouxiaofeiliangyinianjun5%yishangdezengsuwendingzengzhang,cong1980niande365.9wandunzengzhi2019niande3870wandun,90%yishangdexiaofeilaiziyuminyonghangkongye。

  图3 2010年-2019年我国煤油消费量及年均增速

数据来源:国家统计局数据整理。

哒坪胎suizhejingjishehuifazhanshuipinghejuminshourubuduantigao,minhangshichangrengjiangzhangqichixukuaisufazhan。genjuminhangzhouzhuanliangyumeiyouxuqiuzhijiandeguanxi,cesuan2025nian、2030nian、2035nianguoneimeiyouxuqiuyucezhifenbiewei5922wandun、7659wandun、8892wandun,2021-2025nian、2025-2030nian、2031-2035niandenianjunzengsufenbiewei7.52 %、5.51%、3.19%。

3. 柴油

woguochaiyouxuqiuyijingjinrupingtaiqi。genjuguojiatongjijushuju,2008nian-2015nian,guoneichaiyouxiaofeiliangnianjunzengsudadao4.3%。suizheguojiaduiguoneijingjijiegoudiaozhengdelidubuduanjiada,guoneijingjizengsujinruhuandangqi,youguoqudejingjigaosuzengzhangzhubuzhuanbianweizhongsuzengzhang,2016nianchaiyouxiaofeiwei1.66yidun,shenzhichuxianfuzengzhang。2019nian,woguochaiyoubiaoguanxiaofeiliangwei1.46yidun,tongbixiajiang8.3%。

图4 2008年-2019年我国柴油消费量及年均增速

数据来源:国家统计局数据整理。

哒坪胎jingjifazhanjiangyougaosuduzhuanweigaozhiliang,chaiyouxuqiudanxingjiangyanxuzhangqixiaxingqushi。zhongzhangqiwoguochaiyouxuqiujiangcongpingtaishuipingkaishixiajiang。zonghekaolvgdp、chengzhenhualv、shangyongqichebaoyouliangdengyinsu,yucezhongzhangqiguoneichaiyouxuqiu,2025nian、2030nian、2035nianfenbiewei1.42yidun、1.27yidun、1.15yidun。

zongshang,2025nian、2030nian、2035nianwoguochengpinyouxuqiuyucefenbiewei3.59yidun、3.55yidun、3.38yidun。

(二)化工材料用油(化工轻油)需求预测

chuchengpinyouyiwai,shiyoulingyizhuyaoxiaofeilingyujiweihuagongqingyou,yongyushengchanxiting、fangtingdengdazongjichuhuagongyuanliao,jinyibushengchanhuagongcailiaochanpin。qizhongyixiheduierjiaben(px)shihuagongqingyouxiaofeidezhuti,benwentongguoduiliangleichanpindexuqiujinxingfenxiyuce,cesuanhuagongqingyoudexuqiuliang。

1. 乙烯

哒坪胎jinnianlaiguoneiyixixiaofeibaochichixuzengzhang,yixidangliangxiaofeiliangcong2010niande1960wandunzengzhangdao2019nian5271wandun,2019niandangliangzijilvwei45.8%。

图5 2010年-2019年我国乙烯当量消费量及年均增速

数据来源:中国石化经研院统计数据。

yuji2021-2035nianqijian,guoneiyixixuqiuliangjiangwendingzengzhang,danzengsujiangyousuofanghuan,dao2025nian、2030nian、2035nianguoneiyixixuqiujiangdadao6100wandun、7400wandun、8600wandun,2021-2025nian、2026-2030nian、2031-2035niannianjunzengzhanglvfenbiewei5%、4%、3%;kaolvdaoyixiyuanliaorengyouqitalaiyuan,yuji2025nian、2030nian、2035nianduihuagongqingyouxuqiuliangfenbiewei0.96yidun、1.21yidun、1.45yidun。

中国石化茂名石化化工企业

2. 对二甲苯(PX)

jinnianlaiguoneipxxiaofeichixuzengzhang,biaoguanxiaofeiliangcong2010niande957wandunzengzhangdao2019niande2950wandun;2019nianjingjinkou1498wandun,zijilvjin49.2%。

图6 2010年-2019年我国PX表观消费量及年均增长率

数据来源:中国石化经研院统计数据。

yuji2021-2035nianqijian,guoneipxxuqiuliangjiangwendingzengzhang,danzengsujiangyousuofanghuan,dao2025nian、2030nian、2035nianguoneipxxuqiujiangdadao3800wandun、4400wandun、4800wandun,2021-2025nian、2026-2030nian、2031-2035niannianjunzengzhanglvfenbiewei4.8%、3%、2%;2025nian、2030nian、2035nianduihuagongqingyouxuqiuliangfenbieyuewei0.37yidun、0.47yidun、0.55yidun。

(三)石油需求预测

哒坪胎genjuyishangfenxi,yuji2025nian、2030nian、2035nianguoneishichangshiyouxiaofeixuqiufenbiewei6.57yidun、6.99yidun、7.17yidun。

哒坪胎congxiaofeijiaoduchufa,jiejianfadaguojiadejingyan,yingxiangshiyouxiaofeifengzhideguanjianyinsubaohanjingjizongliangjiqijiegou、renkoufazhan、chengzhenhualv、gongyehuajieduan、tidainengyuandeng。anzhongguomuqianfazhanzhuangkuanglaikan,tidainengyuandekuaisufazhanjiangyidingchengdushangyizhichengpinyouxuqiudezengzhang,chengpinyoujiangyu2025nianzhi2030nianjiandadaofengzhi,danhuagongqingyouxuqiurengchixuweichijiaogaozengzhang。yinci,woguoshiyouxiaofeirengcunzaiyidingzengzhangkongjian,danqixiaofeigejujiangfashengjudabianhua,jiyoushengchanchengpinyouzhuanxiangshengchanhuagongcailiao。

图7 我国石油消费格局变化趋势图

数据来源:作者整理。

三、深度炼化一体化是转变我国石油消费格局的重要举措

深度炼化一体化是“石油材料化”的实现途径,也是转变我国石油消费格局的重要手段,能够从根本上提高我国资源综合利用水平和基础化工材料的自主保障程度。我国炼油和化工协同发展水平低,2018年炼化一体化率仅约为11.7%,导致资源浪费、物料能耗高、市场竞争力弱。目前,216家炼油企业中仅有22家实现了炼油、乙烯、芳烃联合生产。

哒坪胎yixi、fangtingshiyugongyeshengchanherenminshenghuoxixixiangguandezhongyaojichuyuanliao,guoduyilaijinkoukongweijichanyeanquan。jinxienian,youyushengchannenglibuzu,woguoyixixiaofeiyibanzuoyouyilaijinkou,fangtingzhongdezhuyaochanpinduierjiabenzijilvjinniangengshichixuxiahua,2019nianjinwei49.2%。xiatuwei2010nianzhi2019nianwoguoyixi、pxshengchannenglijizijilvbianhuatu。

图8 我国乙烯产能及当量自给率变化趋势图

数据来源:中国石化经研院统计数据。

图9 我国PX产能及自给率变化趋势图

数据来源:中国石化经研院统计数据。

哒坪胎lianhuayitihuazaimanzuyoupinxuqiudetongshi,nenggouzengjiayixi、fangtingdeyuanliaogongying,bujinshitigaoziyuanzongheliyongshuipingdeyouxiaotujing,yeshigoujianheliwanzhengdeshihuachanyetixi、weihuguojiachanyezhengtianquandezhongyaoshouduan。chuchengpinyouwai,yixi、duierjiabendengzhongyaojichuhuagongyuanliaoyebixulizuguoneiweizhubaozhanggongji。

congqianshufenxikeyikanchu,weilaiwoguoyixi、pxxuqiurengyoujiaodazengzhangkongjian,jixuzaiyouhualianyounenglijiegoudetongshi,jieheshihuachanyebujuyouhuadiaozheng,jiangwoguochengpinyouyouxiaogongyingnenglikongzhizaihelishuipingdejichushang,baozhangyixi、fangtingdenghuagongcailiaoyongyou。yinci,woguoshiyouxiaofeiyingjianchishendulianhuayitihua,zuidachengdushixianyuanliao、chanpin、nengyuandehugonghuyong,shangxiayouxietongfazhan,jinliangjiangxiquedeshiyouziyuan“chiganzhajing”,zhongdianbaozhangwoguoriyizengzhangdejichuhuagongyuanliaoxuqiu,zengqiangshihuachanyezhengtijingzhengli,lizheng2025nianyitihualvtigaodao25%,2030niandadao30%。

四、“三管齐下”切实扭转我国炼油产能过剩局面

muqianhenglishihua、zhejiangshihua(yiqi)yijingtouchan,huabeishihuakuojianyeyiwancheng,2019nianxinzenglianyouchannengyue4500wandun,quanguolianyouzongnengliyidadao8.58yidun。weilaijinian,suizhezhongkelianhua、shenghonglianhua、zhejiangshihua(erqi)、guangdongshihuadengyipilianhuayitihuaxiangmuluxujianchengtouchan,woguolianyounenglihaijiangjixuzengzhang,yuji2020nianjiangdadao8.68yidun;2020nianhou,haijiangxinzeng0.92yidun,ruobujiadataotaidixiaoluohouchannenglidu,yuji2025nianwoguolianyouchannengjiangdadao9.6yidun。2018nianguoneixiaofeichengpinyou3.35yidun,chukou5864wandun,zhanchanliangde16.3%。weilaiguoneichengpinyoushichangxiaofeikongjianzengzhanghuanman,ruorenganzhaoxianyouchengpinyouchanlvshuiping,youpinjiangmianlinyanzhongchannengguoshengdejumian。

浙江舟山绿色石化基地

yankongxinzenglianyounengli、taotaidixiaoluohouchanneng、shishishendulianhuayitihua“sanguanqixia”,niuzhuanwoguolianyouchannengguoshengjumian。yankongxinzenglianyounengli,zhixinzengyuanyouyicijiagongnenglishi,xuanzhaojianliangzhihuanyuanzeguantingxiangyingnengli;taotaidixiaoluohouchanneng,xianyouyicijiagongnenglidiyu500wandunderanliaoxinglianchangxianqiguantinghuozhuanchan;shishishendulianhuayitihua,xianyoulianyouqiyeyingjiadalianhuayitihuagaizaolidu,jinliangshaochanchengpinyou、duochanhuagongyuanliao;xinjianlianyounenglixupeitaoyixi、fangtingdenghuagongzhuangzhi,shaochanhuobuchanchengpinyouzhi30%yixia、duochanhuagongyuanliaozhi65%yishang。zhiyouzheiyang,cainengqieshiniuzhuanlianyouchannengguoshengdejumian。lingyifangmian,suiranwoguochengpinyoushengchanlizuyumanzuguoneixuqiuweizhu,dankaolvdaomuqianyijingxingchengdelianyounengli,zaiweichiguoneiyoupingongyinganquandeqiantixia,rengxushishiyanjiuchukouyibufenchengpinyoucanyuguojijingzhengdekenengxing。 

五、多元化原料生产化工材料将作为石油消费的战略性补充

哒坪胎yixishishiyouzuoweigongyeshengchanyuanliaodezhuyaoxiaofeilingyu。jinxienian,woguoyixiyuanliaoduoyuanhuabufayousuojiakuai,chucaiyongshinaoyouweiyuanliaowai,yimei、jiachun、yiwanjiyiqitaqingtingweiyuanliaoshengchanyixidezhuangzhizengduo。muqian,woguoyixigongyeyuanliaorengyouyue80%laiyuanyulianchang。

yishinaoyouweiyuanliaoshengchanyixirengjuyouyidingxiangduiyoushi,zaishengchanyixidetongshi,kechanshengbingxi、dingerxihebendenggaofujiazhihuagongyuanliao,qijingjixingzailianhuayitihuayixizhuangzhizhongtixianyouweimingxian。yimei、jiachun、yiwanjiqitaqingtingweiyuanliaodeyixizhuangzhi,zhinengshengchanyixidanyichanyelianchanpin。

江苏新浦化学第一条46000吨乙烷船

zongtilaikan,zaishiyouzuoweinengyuanxiaofeirijianjianshaodeqingkuangxia,zuoweiyixiyuanliaoxiaofeiyingzhujianzengzhang,qiejiangzhujianfazhanchengweishiyouxiaofeidezhuyaolingyu,zhanyixigongyeyuanliaode65%-70%zuoyou,qitayuanliaoshengchanyixizhinengzuoweishiyouzhiyixidezhanlvexingbuchong。

六、石油消费产业安全应纳入新时期能源安全内容

xinshiqiwoguonengyuananquanshineihanbuduanfengfu、waiyanbuduantuozhandezongheanquantixi。duonianlaixingchengdenengyuananquanguanshiyizhongjiyubaquanlilunhediyuanzhengzhisiweideanquanguan,fuyuleshiyoujiaoduodeguojiazhanlvehediyuanzhengzhisecai。chulechuantongnengyuananquanzhongshiyoudegongying、jiagehetongdaoanquanzhiwai,yeyaozhongshishiyouxiaofeijiegoubianhuawenti。gongjihexiaofeiqiandongguoneiwailianggeshichang,chuantongnengyuananquandegainianyijingwufachongfenjieshiwoguoxianzaimianlindeanquanwenti,yewufazhengqueyindaodangjinwoguodenengyuanshengchanhexiaofeigeming。woguopoqiexuyaocongshiyouxiaofeishijiaozhongxinshenshinengyuananquandeneihan。

shiyouzuoweiquanqiudiyidaxiaofeinengyuan,suiranweilaijiangjianshaozaijiaotongranliaolingyudexiaofei,danbuyingxiangqizaihuagongcailiaolingyudeshiyong,shiyoudexiaofeixuqiubuhuixiaoshi,zhishixiaofeijiegoucongnengyuanzhuanxiangcailiao。congxiangguanchanyefazhanlaikan,woguolianyougongyemuqianzongguimojinciyumeiguojushijiedier,jishu、zhuangbei、chanpinzhiliangshuipingjundadaoguojiyiliu,shengchandeyoupinjihuaxuepinyifuwuyuguoneiguojilianggeshichang。baozhangshiyouxiaofeichanyeanquan,yingzuoweixinshiqinengyuananquanguandezhongyaozuchengbufen。

哒坪胎shiyoujiagongshiguanxiguojiminshengdejichuxing、zhanlvexingchanye,shiguominjingjideyacangshihequdongqi,nenggoufahuibaozhangguojianengyuananquanhechanyelianpingwenyunxingdeguanjianzuoyong。dangqian,zaiguojiyiqingmanyan、youjiadafuzhendang、quanqiujingjishuaituiduozhongyinsudiejiabeijingxia,woguoshiyoujiagongyechanyeyingjinzhuaweilai 2zhi3 nianquanqiuchanyelianzhonggoudezhanlvechuangkouqi,jieheguojixuqiuhezishenyoushi,jianding“zizhuhua、yitihua、duoyuanhua、guojihua”fazhandaolu,jianchishiyoushihuaquanchanyelianjiqunhuafazhanmoshi,jiakuaituijinxingyejiangbenzengxiao、jiegoudiaozheng、zhuanxingshengji,zengqiangchanyezhengtijingzhengli。

参考文献

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[2] 王馨悦.如何让乙烯成为国际产能合作的重中之重[N].中国石油报,2017-10-09.

[3] 曹杰,迟东训.中国乙烯工业发展现状与趋势[J]. 国际石油经济,2019(12).

[4] 费华伟,朱和,高振宇.炼油“十四五”突破口在哪儿[J].中国石油石化,2020(3).

注:文中图片来源于网络。