哒坪胎视界

许豫东 孔繁荣 杜贞利 | 我国建设海外石油储备及石化基地研究 ——以吉布提为例
发布日期:2019-07-15 作者:许豫东 孔繁荣 杜贞利 信息来源:哒坪胎研究 访问次数: 字号:[ ]

摘要

构建我国海外石油储备与石化基地项目,对于积极贯彻我国“一带一路”战略、维护我国海外利益、保障石油战略储备具有积极意义。本研究提出以“共商、共建、共享”为原则,联合产油国和石油消费国共同建立海外大型石油储备和石化基地,合作各方充分发挥各自优势,整合地理区位优势、石油资源优势、消费市场优势、储备工程建设优势等,开创共享经济模式,促进各方经济共同发展。同时,立足于项目商务可行并持续运营,设计了项目开发模式,并据此谋划相关重大工程。

关键词:海外;石油储备;石化基地;研究

shiyoujishizhongyaodenengyuan,yeshizhongyaodezhanlvewuzi。woguoyichengweishijiedierdajingjiti,duishiyoudexuqiubuduanzengzhang。youyuziyuanbingfutiaojian,guoneishiyoushengchanwufamanzuriyizengzhangdexuyao,woguoyuanyoujinkouyicundubuduanzengjia,shiyouanquanshoudaogefangmiandezhongshi。zaizheizhongbeijingxia,xuanzejingwaiheshiguojiahedidian,goujianwoguohaiwaishiyouchubeiyushihuajidi,bujinjuyoushangyejiazhi,gengjuyoupinghuaguojishiyoujiage、baozhangguojiashiyouanquangongyingdezhanlvejiazhi。

一、我国石油进口及石油储备基本情况

(一)我国石油进口情况

1996nianwoguochengweiyuanyoujingjinkouguo,erhouduiwaiyicunduxunsupansheng。2010nianyuanyoujingjinkouliangshoucitupo2yidun,duiwaiyicunduzengzhi54%。2017nianwoguoyuanyoujinkouliangchaoguomeiguo,jushijiediyiwei。2019nian,woguojinkouyuanyou5.1yidun,duiwaiyicunduchaoguo70%。

哒坪胎woguoyuanyoujinkouyihaiyunweizhu,zhongdongdiqurengshizuizhuyaodejinkoulaiyuandi。2019nian,jinkouzizhongdongdiqudeyuanyoufenezhandao48.46%,feizhou、eluosi,ouzhou、nanmei、yatai、beimeifenezefenbiezhandao18.33%,16.18%,13.08,2.58%,2.61%,0.8%。

表1 中国原油主要进口国以及进口比例

数据来源:中国海关统计数据

(二)我国石化企业“走出去”情况

zaiguojiatuijin“yidaiyilu”zhanlvechangyidezhiyinxia,yizhongguoshiyou、zhongguoshihuadengweidaibiaodezhongguolianhuaqiyedalikaizhanguojichannenghezuo,kaituohaiwaishichang、chuangpinpai,dazaozhongguoxinmingpian,qudemingxianjinzhan。bujinlianhuayewufugaiyazhou、zhongdong、zhongyaeluosi、feizhoudengdiqu,hezuoxiangmuyecongyiwangdeyicanyugongchengjianshefuwuweizhu,zhuanweicanyudazhongxinglianchangdexinjian、gaikuojianhehezihezuo。

中国石油哈萨克斯坦齐姆肯特炼油厂

表2  中国炼化企业“走出去”情况

资料来源:根据公开数据整理

(三)我国石油储备情况

zi2002niankaishi,woguokaishiqidongshiyouchubeitixijianshe,zhidingleguojiashiyouchubeizhongzhangqiguihua,mingquecaiquzhengfuchubeiyuqiyechubeixiangjiehedefangshijianliguojiashiyouchubeitixi,shiyouchubeiguimofazhanmubiaocankaoguojinengyuanshu(iea)tuijiandechubeiguimoqueding。jiezhi2020nianchu,zhongguojianchengzhoushan、zhoushankuojian、zhenhai、dalian、huangdao、dushanzi、lanzhou、tianjinjihuangdaoguojiashiyouchubeidongkugong9geguojiashiyouchubeijidi,liyongchubeikujibufenshehuiqiyekurong,chubeiyuanyou8500wandun,chubeiguimoyijingxiangdangyu90tiandeshiyoujingjinkouliang。muqian,duiyuyijiandezhengfuchubeijidi,haiweijianlimingquedechubeishiyoudongyong、lunhuandengguanlizhidu,yishouchudeyuanyoujibenweidongyongguo。

二、建设海外石油储备及石化基地的意义

1.保障我国石油供给安全

哒坪胎goujianhaiwaishiyouchubeiheshihuajidi,yuzhizhanlvefuwugongneng。yifangmiankeyiweiwoguoguojihangyunqiye、haiwaijunshibaozhangjiditigongyoupinchubeihejiazhufuwu,baozhangyoupingongjidekekongxing、anquanxing、bianjiexing;lingyifangmian,zaizhenzhengfashengquanqiuxinghuozhequyuxingshiyougongyingweijishi(lirushiyoujinyundeng),yekeyitongguoshifanghaiwaishiyouchubei,kuodashiyougongji、pingyishiyoujiage,jiangshiyougongyingweijiduiguoneijingjidechongjijiangdaozuidi。

2.创新以油储为基础的共享经济模式

lianhechanyouguoheshiyouxiaofeiguogongtongjianlidaxingshiyouchubeiheshihuajidi,kezaishiyouchanchuyuxiaofeijudashichangzhijiandajianqiliangxingdegongxiangfazhanmoshi,hezuogefangkeyichongfenfahuizijideziyuanyoushi,zhengheshiyouziyuanyoushi、xiaofeishichangyoushi、chubeijidiyoushi、zhichibaozhangyoushideng,kaichuanggongxiangjingjidechuangxinxingmoshi,cujingefangjingjigongtongfazhan。

3.发挥保税燃油供应等的国际海事服务功能

hangyoushiyuanyangyunshudedonglilaiyuan,shiguojimaoyiyunshudezhongyaojichu,yeshizhiyuehaishangyunshuguimoyujulidezhongyaoyinsu。zaihaishanghangxianmijidelinjindiqu,jiehehaiwaishangyeshiyouchubeixiangmu,jiansheyuanyanghangxianbaoshuiranyougongyingjidi,weiwanglaiyunshudechuanbotigongxiangguandeyouliaobuji;yiciweijichu,weiguojichuanbogongyinghaishangshenghuowuzidengxiangguanfuwu,xiyingengduoguojichuanbokaobo,zhubudazaogongnengqiquan、fuwuwanshan、shenghuobianjiedeguojihaishifuwujidi,keshixianshiyoushangyechubeiheshangyexiaoshoudeliangxingxunhuan,juyouguangkuofazhanqianjing。

4.助力国内外原油期货市场的发展

哒坪胎2018nian3yue26ri,zhongguoyuanyouqihuozaishanghaiqihuojiaoyisuozigongsi—shanghaiguojinengyuanjiaoyizhongxinzhengshiguapaijiaoyi。jiezhi2020nian3yue,yuanyouqihuokaihushuliangtupo12wanhu,jingwaikehukaihutupo200hu,hangai5dazhouhe19geguojiahediqu,chicangliangtupo12wanshou,ripanjiaoyiliangtupo20wanshou,zaijingneijiaoyishiduanjiaoyiguimoyumeiguoxidekesasiqingzhiyuanyouqihuo(wti)hebulunteyuanyouqihuo(brent)xiangdang。shanghaiguojinengyuanjiaoyizhongxinjiancheng6jiayuanyouqihuozhidingjiaogecangku,hedingkurong595wanlifangmi,qiyongkurong315wanlifangmi。zaijibutijianshehaiwaishiyouchubeiheshihuajidi,keyiweiguoneiyuanyouqihuoshichangjingwaijiaoyizhepeitaojiansheyuanyoujiaogeku。

三、吉布提优劣势条件分析

(一)优势

1.得天独厚的地理区位条件

哒坪胎jibutishiliantongou、ya、feisandazhoujianhaishangjiaotongmaoyideshuniu,shiquanqiumaoyihangxianshangdezhongyaojiedian。zhongdongdiquchukoudaoxioubeioudeshiyou,daduoshudouyaojingguojibutifujindeyadingwan,jingyousuyishiyunheyunsong。tongshi,jibutidiliweizhishangkaojinnansudan、zhongdongdengshijiezhuyaodechanyoudiqu,baozhanglehuoqushiyouziyuandewendingxing、bianjiexing,jiangdiyunshufengxianheyunshuchengben。zaidutedediyuanzhengzhiyinsuhequweiyoushidegongtongzuoyongxia,jibutizhengzaichengweishijiedejiaodian,chengweishijiegedaguoqiaoqifeizhouzhongdongdegangganzhidian。

吉布提地理位置

2.良好的双边政治经济合作基础

哒坪胎zhongji1979nian1yue8rijianjiaoyilai,liangguozhengzhiguanxiwenbufazhan,liangguolingdaorenduociyouhaohufang,gaocengzhijianjiaoliuhudongpoduo。2017nian11yue23ri,guojiazhuxixijinpingzaibeijinghuijianjibutizongtonggailai,xijinpingzhuxiqiangdiaohuanyingjibuticanyu“yidaiyilu”jianshe,yuantongjifangyidaowenbutuijinliangguowushihezuo,zaiziyoumaoyiqujianshe、nongyehezuojiqitajichusheshixiangmuqudelianghaojingjishehuixiaoyi。zheixiezhongyaodehezuojiaoliujucuo,weihaiwaishiyoushangyechubeiyumaoyijididejianshedaxialejianshidezhengzhijichu。

吉布提国际自贸区

3.良好的油储和加油产业基础

muqian,jibutiyiyouyigeyoupinmatou,2017niantuntuliang420wandun(510wanlifangmi),peitaojianshe31gechengpinyouchuguan,zuidakurong40wanlifangmi,nianzhouzhuancishu12-13ci,muqiannenglijiejinbaohe。suojinkouyoupinqizhong85%chukoudaoaisaiebiya,10-15%neixiaojibuti,buzu5%chukoudaosuomali。gaimatouyoulianggebowei,diyigeboweikerongna80000zaizhongdundechuanbo,chishuishenduwei18.0mi;diergeboweikechuli30000zaizhongdundechuanbo,chishui10.0mi。

吉布提地平线油码头及储罐

4.潜力可观的战略腹地市场

zuoweidongfeizuida、feizhoudisidajingjiti,duonianlaiaisaiebiyazhengjuwending,yongyoujinyiyirenkouhefengfuziranziyuan,gongyehuajinchengfazhanshitoulianghao,yuzhongguojingmaowanglaimiqie。aisaiyujibutishiyouhaolinbang,liangguojiaotongbianli,jiaowangmiqie,jibutishiaisaichuhaikou。aisaiwaihuiguanzhiyanke,aisaiyezhuzaijibutijinxingmaoyijiesuan,keguibiwaihuiguanzhi;aisaishuishougaoqieshuizhongduo;jibutiguojizimaoquweiwanquanmianshuipingtai,qiyejinkouyuancailiaoxiangshoumianshuizhengce;aichuanduiaisaijinchukouhuowushixinglongduanshijingying,wuliushangkeyitongguojibutiguibiaichuanlongduanjingying。

5.较为稳定的政治和社会环境

哒坪胎jibutizailishishangsuiranyouguojicizhanluanhedongdang,danzai2001nianshixianquanguozuizhongheping,2014nianjibutizhengjushixianwending;zhengcefangmianduiwaishangtouzidexianzhixiangduijiaoshao,qiezhengfulianzhengzhishuzaiquanqiufanweineipaimingxiangduijiaohao。jibutiyiyisilanjiaoweiguojiao,qizhong94%dejuminweiwenhedexunnipaimusilin,shehuiwending。jibutibuyunxusirenchiyouqiangzhi,xingshifanzuilvjidi,shishijieshangfanzuilvzuidideguojiazhiyi。

6.我国海外军事保障基地的安全支持

哒坪胎zaijibutijianshehaiwaishiyoushangyechubeiyumaoyijidi,qianquanxingkeyidedaojiaohaodebaozhang。2017nian,zhongguozaijibutijianlilehaiwaijunshibaozhangjidi,weizhongguojunduizhixingyadingwanhesuomalihaiyuhuhang、weihe、rendaozhuyijiuyuandengrenwutigongxiuzhengbujibaozhang,bingqiezhuyouyidingdewuzhuangliliang,zheinenggouweishiyouchubeijididejianshehehouqiyunyingguanlitigongbiyaodeanquanbaozhang。

中国驻吉布提保障基地

(er)lieshi

1.自然地理环境较为恶劣

jibutishamoyuhuoshanzhanquanguomianjide90%,baokuoyanhaidiquzaineidequanguodabufendiqujunshuredaishamoqihou,neidizejinyuredaicaoyuanqihou,quanjingzhongniankureshaoyu。jibutichuyusandabankuaijiaojiechu,dizhenfashengpinlvjiaogao。gaowenyanredeqihoutiaojianheduofadedizhenhuodongjiangzengjiajibutishiyouchubeiheshihuaxiangmudejianshechengben。

2.劳动用工方面存在一定困难

jibutizongrenkou99wanren,qizhongshoudou63wanren。jibutijiaoyubufada,guomindeshoujiaoyuchengdupubianjiaodi,quefashuliandejigong。duiyuwailailaogongrenyuaneryan,jibutizhengfushixingyangedegongzuoxukezhengzhiduheqianzhengguanlizhidu,gongzuoxukechangfudaixianzhitiaojian,zheiduikaizhanxiangmujianshedailaileyidingkunnan。

3.附近海域安全系数较低

jibutipilinyadingwan,gaihaiyujinnianlaihaidaohuodongjiaoduo,shangchuan、youlunbeijieshijianpinfa,jigeguohaishangyunshuzaochengsunshi。zheikenenghuijijidideshiyouheqitawuzidehaishangyunshu、bujidailaiyidingdeanquanfengxian。

四、总体构想

(一)基本思路

lizujibutiyoushitiaojian,kefufazhanlieshi,zaidamajiaolinganggongyeyuanxuanzeheshiquyu,duibiaohejiejianxinjiapofazhanjingyan,miaozhunnansudan、shatedengzhoubianshiyoushengchanguoheaisaiebiya、suomali、sudandengzhoubianshiyouxiaofeiguodeyuanyouhechengpinyouchubei、jinkouxuqiu,jijifazhanyuanyoujiqiyou、chaiyoudengchengpinyoudechubei、yunshu、shengchanjiagong;miaozhuntujingmandehaixiadeguojichuanbo,fazhanchuanyongranliaoyoucangchu、maoyihejiazhufuwu;miaozhunaisaihangkonghangyouxuqiu,fazhanhangyoucangchuhefuwu。genjushangshufazhanfangxiang,chengli“3+n”kaifajianshezhuti,jilianheguoneishiyoushihua、gangkoujiansheyunying、jinrongjigoudengdaxingqiye,tongshijijixinabaokuoyouqishengchanguohexiaofeiguozaineidejibuti、yemen、shate、sudan、nansudan、aisaiebiya、suomalidengfangzijinrugu,chongfenfahuigeziyoushi,xingchengheli,gongtongjiansheyunyingxiangyingdeyuanyouchuyunguanqu,chaiyou、qiyouchuyunguanqu,youpinjiexiebowei、shuyouguandao、shiyoulianhuadengsheshi,zuizhongxingchengjiyoupincunchu、zhongzhuanyunshu、jiagongzhizao、guojimaoyi、jinrongfuwuyuyitidechanyejiqun。

(二)商业模式

caiyongshangyeweizhu、jianguguojiaxuqiudemoshi,zheikeyiyuchuantongyiyishangdeguojiashiyouzhanlvechubeijidiyangequfenkailai,bimianxiangmushishiguochengzhongdeminganxingzhengzhiwenti,bujishijieqitaguojiajiajiexiangmusanbu“zhongguoweixielun”、“zhongguokuozhanlun”dekoushi,youzhuyuxiangmudeshunliluodishishi。

1.经营模式

shiyouchubeijishihuajidixiangmudejingyingmoshi,zunxun“xunxujianjin、zhubushenru”deyuanze,keyifenweiliangqizhankai。

yiqijingyingmoshiweijiaoweidanyide“cunchu+zhuanyun+xiaoshou”moshi。tongguojianshedaguimo、anquanxishugaodeshiyouchubeicangku,tishenghaigangdeyunshutuntunengli,pushelushangyunshuguandaodengcuoshi,quanmiantishengshiyoucunchu、zhuanyunhexiaoshounengli。yiqiyuanyoukujiejianguoneizhanlvechubeikuguimo,yijinansudan、shate、yemendengyouchuqianzaixuqiu,kurongwei300wanlifangmi,zhouzhuanliangwei1000wandun/nian;ranliaoyoukuanzhaoguowangchuanzhiqianzaixuqiukaolv,kurongwei18wanlifangmi,zhouzhuanliangwei100wandun/nian;chengpinyoukuguimoankenniya、aisaiebiya、yemen、suomali、eliteliyadengchengpinyoushichangxuqiukaolv,kurongwei40wanlifangmi,zhouzhuanliang200wandun/nian。

erqijingyingmoshikeyishengjiwei“cunchu+zhuanyun+xiaoshou+shengchan+jinrongfuwu”deduoyuanhua、quanfangwei、zonghexingdeshangyemoshi。zailizushiyouchubei、baozhanggongjianquandejichushang,keyijinyibutuozhanshengchan、xiaoshou、guojimaoyi、jinrongfuwudengyewu。jutieryan,yishifazhanshiyoulianhuajiagongchanye,lirushiyoujiagong、huagong、xiangjiaozhizaodeng,wanshanshihuachanyeshangxiayouyitihuachanyelian。ershikeyipingjiediliquweikaizhanguojishiyoumaoyi,jibaokuoxiangbendishichangchushouyidingguimodechengpinyou,yebaokuoxiangzhoubianguojiahediqujinxingchushou。sanshizaikuodaxianhuojiaoyidejichushang,fazhanyuanyou、chengpinyou、baoshuiranliaoyoudengdazongshangpinjiaoge、cangchu、baoshuiyewu。erqiyuanyouzongkurongan1000wanlifangmiguihua,zhouzhuanliangdadao3000wandun/nianyishang;ranliaoyoukurongan36wanlifangmiguihua,zhouzhuanliangdadao200wandunyishang;chengpinyoukuan100wanlifangmiguihua,zhouzhuanliangdadao600wandun/nian。tongshi,genjuzhoubianchanpinshichangqianzaixuqiu,guihualianyouxiangmuchuqijiansheguimowei500wandun/nian(yue10wantong/tian)。

2.盈利渠道

qiyingliqudaokeyibaokuoyixiajigefangmian:

yishiyuanyoujichengpinyoucangchufeiyongyingli。tongguoweizhoubianguojiatigongyoupincangchujiyunshufuwu、weiguoneishiyouqihuotigongjiaogeku、weiguojiahaiwaishiyouchubeinenglijianshetigongcangchufuwu,shouquxiangyingcangchufeiyong。yuanyoucangchuqianzaiyonghubaokuonansudan、yemen、shate、kenniya、guoneiwaiqihuojiaoyijigou、shiyoumaoyishang;chengpinyoucangchuqianzaiyonghubaokuoaisaiebiya、suomali、eliteliyadeng。youkucangchufeiyugongchengtouzi、yunyingchengbenyijiyoupinzhouzhuanliangyouguan,muqianguoneiyuanyoucangchusheshicangchufeiyibanwei25-40yuan/dun,chengpinyoucangchusheshicangchufeiyibanwei35-50yuan/dun。

哒坪胎ershiyuanyoujichengpinyougouxiaochajiayingli:tongguogenzongguojiyoujiazhangdiequshi,bawoshichangxinxi,zaiyoujiazoudideshihoudalianggouruyuanyoujichengpinyoubingjinxingcunchu,zaiyoujiazhujianzougao、jingjilihao、xuqiukuodadeqingkuangxia,jinxingyoupinxiaoshou,liyonggouxiaochajia,huoqujingjishouyi。

sanshijiagongxiaoshouyingli:gouruhecunchudeyuanyou,tongguojiagongchulikeyizhuanbianweiduozhongbutongxingtaiheyongtudeshihuachanpin,liruyehuashiyouqi、qiyou、penqiranliao、meiyou、chaiyou、ranliaoyoudeng,haikeyiyiyuanyouweiyuanliaojiagongchengweiqitayoulei。ciwai,zaiyouleigongyedejichushang,haikeyidalifazhanshiyouhuagongdengchanye。tongguoduishiyoudejiagong,yinrujishu、zhishijiazhi,youcidailaidechanpinzengjiazhikeyiweidangdiqiyehezhengtixiangmudailaigengdayinglikongjian。

sishijinrongjijinrongyanshengchanpinfuwuyingli:zaiziyoumaoyigang(qu)chongfenfazhandejichushang,yinruqihuodengjinrongchanpinjiyanshenchanpinfuwu,jinyibutuozhanyinglikongjian。

(三)重大工程

1.石油储备工程

gaigongchengzhuyaobaokuosanfangmianneirong:

哒坪胎(1)yuanyouchubeijicangchu:weijibutizhoubianguojiatigongshiyouchubeijicangchufuwu;weiwoguotujingjibutihangxianjinkouyuanyoutigongshiyouchubeifuwu;chengweishanghai、niuyue、lundunhedibaidengyuanyouqihuojiaoyisuodezhongdongdiqujiaogeku;yuanqiweijibutiyuanyoujiagongxiangmutigongchubeijicangchufuwu。

(2)chengpinyoucangchuwuliu:weijibutijizhoubiandeaisaiebiya、kenniyadengguojiatigongchengpinyoucangchufuwu;mianxiangguonei、guowailianggeshichang,kaizhanchengpinyou、ranliaoyoudecangchuwuliuyewu,jianghaiwaiyuanyou、chengpinyoupifadaoguoneishichang,huobaoshui、zhuankouzhihaiwaishichang。

哒坪胎(3)ranliaoyoujiazhu:weitujingjibutideyuanyangyunshuchuantigongranliaoyoujiazhufuwu。

2.炼油工程

哒坪胎lianyougongchengjiqihouxuyanshenchanyefazhanfenweisangejieduan:

diyijieduan:jiansheranliaoxinglianyouchang,mubiaoshichangdingweiyiaisaiebiyachengpinyoushichangweizhu,fushekenniya、suomalidengdongbeifeiguojiachengpinyoushichang,jiangushengchanshaolianghuagongchanpin。

哒坪胎dierjieduan:shishichangfayuqingkuangheyuanyouziyuantiaojian,duilianyouchangjinxingshidanggaikuojian,jianglianyouguimokuojiandaoqianwandunji,bingtongguolianyou、huagongyitihuajianshemoshi,shidangyanshenhetuozhanfangting、xitingchanpinlian,daidongqinggong、fangzhidengshihuaxiayouchanyefazhan。

哒坪胎disanjieduan:zhubudazaochuyijibutilianyouxiangmuweilongtoudezhuanyehuashiyouhuagongyuanqu,jiangjibutijianchengdongbeifeidiquzhongyaoshiyouhuagongshengchanjidihelingangjiagongzhizaoyezhongxin。

五、结语

哒坪胎shiyoushishijiefanweineidezhongyaonengyuanhezhanlveziyuan,duiyuwoguojiajingjianquan、guofanganquan、shehuianquanjuyouzhongyaoyiyi。zai“yidaiyilu”yanxianguojia,jianshejingwaishiyouchubeiheshihuashengchanjidi,yishiyouliyuweihuwoguohaiwaijingjihejunshiquanyi;ershiyouliyuweijishikepingyishijieshiyouchanpinjiagebodong;sanshiyouliyuhezuofanghuligongying,tuijin“yidaiyilu”changyishishi。jibutishiliantongou、ya、feisandazhoujianhaishangjiaotongmaoyideshuniu,shiquanqiumaoyihangxianshangdezhongyaojiedian,juyoujiansheshiyouchubeiheshihuajididejibentiaojian。keyikaolvtongguolianheguoneishiyoushihua、gangkoujiansheyunying、jinrongjigoudengdaxingqiye,tongshijijixinabaokuoyouqishengchanguohexiaofeiguozaineideduofangzijinrugu,gongtongjiansheyunyingxiangyingdeyuanyouchuyunguanqu,chaiyou、qiyouchuyunguanqu,youpinjiexiebowei、shuyouguandao、shiyoulianhuadengsheshi,zuizhongxingchengjiyoupincunchu、zhongzhuanyunshu、jiagongzhizao、guojimaoyi、jinrongfuwuyuyitideshihuachanyejiqun。

参考文献

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2. 况龙,佘建跃.上海原油期货在国际原油市场的地缘意义和应用[J].当代石油石化,2018,26(3):14-15.

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