哒坪胎视界

朱宁 | 综合能源发展脉络、技术特点和未来趋势
发布日期:2018-09-25 信息来源:哒坪胎研究 访问次数: 字号:[ ]

jinruxinshidaidezhongguo,suizhejingjinjixietongfazhanhezhangjiangjingjidaifazhandechixutuijinyijiyuegangaodawanqujianshedejiakuai,duoxiangguojiazhanlvequanmianshishi,chanyezhuanxingshengji、jingjigaozhiliangfazhanxiangguandeyixiliezhengcebuduanfabu。

nengyuanshiguojiazhanlveshishidejichu。woguonengyuanlingyudegaoqiangdujiansheshidaiyijingguoqu,weigoujianlvseditan、anquangaoxiaodenengyuangongjitixi,weishixianshengtailianghao、meilizhongguomubiao,zhongguonengyuanxingyecongnengyuanshengchan、nengyuanjichusheshi、nengyuanxiaofei,daonengyuanjishuhechanyedaoru,doujixuzhaozhunnengyuangaozhiliangfazhandexindongliyuan。dapingtaigongsixionganxinquguihuabianzhituanduitichudezonghenengyuan(xitong)zheiyixinyetaixinmoshi,beizanxushiyizhong“henxianjindelinian”,yijingzaixionganxinqunengyuanguihuaheshishifanganzhongquanmiantuixing,jiangchengweinengyuangaozhiliangfazhandezhongyaozhelidian。

一、我国能源发展的主要方向

哒坪胎qingjie、ditan、gaoxiaoyijingchengweishijienengyuanfazhandashi,xinyilunkejigeminghechanyebiangejunjujiaonengyuanlingyu,zhuyaotixianzaisangefangmian:yishifadaguojiazaigaoduzhongshinengyuananquanqiantixia,fenfenzhidingnengyuanzhuanxingzhanlveheditanzhengce,fabugenggaodenengyuanfazhanzhibiao,buduantigaokezaishengnengyuanzhanbi,zhubujiangdimeitanzhanbi,chixutishengdianqihuashuiping;ershinengyuankejichuangxinjinrugaoduhuoyueqi,zhongdianjizhongzaiqingnengjixinyidaihenengjishuyanfa、daguimochunenghezhihuinengyuanjishushifan、xianjinfenbushinengyuanyuzhinengweidianwangjishuguangfanyingyongdenglingyu;sanshinengyuangongyinghefuwufangshijiakuaizhuanbian,zonghenengyuanxitongzhubupuji,xianjinnengyuanshebeijiguanjiancailiaobuduanyongxian。

gaigekaifangyilai,woguonengyuanshengchanhexiaofeizongliangchixuzengzhang,yicinengyuanshengchanzongliangcong 6.3yidunbiaozhunmeizengzhangdao2018niande37.7yidunbiaozhunmei,nengyuanxiaofeizongliangcong 5.7yidunbiaozhunmeizengzhangdao 2018niande46.4yidunbiaozhunmei。yunengyuanfazhantongbu,jinruxinshijiyilai,woguoquanshehuiyongdianliangkuaisuzengzhang,2018nianquanshehuiyongdianliangdadao68449yiqianwashi。weimanzudianlixuqiugaozengzhang,woguodianlizhuangjiguimobuduankuoda。jiezhi2018niandi,fadianzhuangjiguimodadao19.0yiqianwa,qizhonghuodian11.44yiqianwa、shuidian3.52yiqianwa、hedian4466wanqianwa、fengdian1.84yiqianwa、taiyangnengfadian1.75yiqianwa,shixianrenjunzhuangjiguimo1.36qianwa。woguoyixingchengfugaihuabei、huazhong、huadong、dongbei、xibei、xinan、nanfangdengquyude500qianfuhe750qianfujiaoliuzhuwangjia,chutaiwanwaiyishixianquanbushengjidianwangjiaozhiliuhulian。jiezhi2018niandi,quanguo220qianfujiyishangshudianxianluzongzhangdudadao73.3wangongli, 220qianfujiyishanggongyongbianshebeirongliang402255wanqianfuan。zhongguowulunshinengyuanshengchanhexiaofeizongliang,haishifadianzhuangjiguimo、dianwangguimo,junjushijieshouwei。

jingliledadianwang、dadianyuan、dameikuangdengdegaoqiangdujianshehou,woguonengyuanjiegouhebujuzhengzaishendudiaozheng。jinhoujiaozhangyiduanshiqinei,suiranyicinengyuanbingfuzaochengde“meitanyilai”xianxiangnanyixiaochu,danwoguonengyuanjiegoubijiangchixuyouhua,meitanzhanbijiangzhubuxiajiang,kezaishengnengyuanxiaofeibizhongjiangzhubushangsheng。bansuichengzhenhuaheshuzihuachengshijianshe,xinyidaixinxijishu、xiandaishengmingkexue、shengwuyiyaohexianjindianzicailiaodengzhanlvexingxinxingchanyeduigongdianqiangduhezhiliangdegenggaoyaoqiu,yijijinhouguidaohegonglujiaotong、juminshenghuodegaodudianqihuatezheng,jiangshidewoguodiannengzhanzhongduannengyuanxiaofeibizhongdafutigao。

dangqianwoguonengyuanlingyucunzaidezhuyaowentizhiyi,shinengyuanchanyeliantiaobuzhang、cengcibugao,nengyuanshengchanxingfuwudengpeitaochanyefazhanzhihou,chanyetixiquandanduanbanjiaoduo。zaixinfazhanlinianzhiyinxia,weishenrutuijinnengyuangongjicejiegouxinggaige,woguonengyuanfazhanzhengzaiyouzhuyaoyikaoziyuantouruxiangchuangxinqudongzhuanbian,nengyuanzhengcezhuzhongjieyuegaoxiao、jiegouyouhua、qingjietidai、chuangxindongneng、anquankekao。tuidongnengyuanxiangqingjiehuahezhinenghuafangxiangfazhan,jijifazhanhepeiyunengyuanxinjishu、xinyetaihexinmoshi,chuangxinnengyuantizhijizhi,yijingchengweinengyuanxingyegongshi。

二、综合能源的发展脉络、概念和特点

1、综合能源发展脉络

oumei、ribendengfadaguojiazaoqifazhanjieduanyijiwoguoshijiushiji80niandaiyilai,zaichengshihekaifaquzhubupujiredianlianchan, 90niandaijinyibuxingqifenbushifadiangongre,zheixienengyuanjiagongzhuanhuanhegongyingxingshijibenshangshiliyongdanyinengyuanshengchanrenengxiangyonghugongying。90niandaichu,beiou、ribenkaishicaiyonghaishuiyuanrebengjishu,jiangdipinweidehaishuinengyuanyugaopinweidediannengjiehe,xiangdianyonghugongregongleng。2003nian,guangzhoudaxuechengkaishijinxingrebengjishuyingyongchangshi,kaizhanlequyujizhongzhileng,danweishixiannengyuanlaiyuanduoyuanhuahenengyuangongyingduoyanghua。

哒坪胎zhihou,zaiwanshandedianwang、tianranqiguanwangyoulizhichengxia,yinengyuanlaiyuancongdanyizhuanxiangduoyuanhua、nengyuangongying(gongre)conggaowenzhuanxiangzhongdiwenweilianggezhuyaojishutezheng,guojishangchengshinengyuangongyingkaishixiangduoyuanduoyangfangxiangfazhan。jinshijinian,woguonengyuanxingyegenzongshijienengyuanfazhan,bawolvseditanzhuanxingdashi,kaishilezonghenengyuan(xitong)dechangshi。2008nian,woguohaerbin、jiangsudengdi,chuxianlecaiyongrebengjishu、liyongduozhongnengyuanshixianquyugongregonglengdezonghenengyuanzhan。zaiguojiatuijinnengyuangemingdabeijingxia,beijing、shanghai、jiangsu、zhejiang、guizhou、qingdao、xiongandengxuduochengshishishilezonghenengyuangongchenghekaizhanxiangguanguihua,zonghenengyuanzheiyinengyuanxinyetaixinmoshikaishishoudaogedizhongshi。

2、综合能源概念和特点

2015nian,lianheguohuanjingguihuashutichulequyunengyuandegainian(tuyi),jitongguozhenghenengyuanshengchan、gonggongweisheng、wushuichuli、yunshuhefeiqiwuchulidengshizhengfuwusheshi,jianshexiandaiquyunengyuanxitong,xietongshengchangongyingreliang、lengliang、reshuihegongdian。

tuyi lianheguohuanjingguihuashutichudequyunengyuanxitongjiagoushiyitu

哒坪胎dapingtaigongsixionganxinquguihuabianzhituanduitichudezonghenengyuangainianyulianheguohuanjingguihuashutichudequyunengyuangainianjibenqihe。zonghenengyuan(tuer)chongfenliyongshudidipinweinengyuan,yidianli、tianranqi、qingnengdengweizhugonggaopinweinengyuan,caiyongzhihuinengyuanjishu,tongguojianlizonghenengyuanzhangongcheng+zhihuinengyuanweiwanggongcheng(baokuoyuanwanghechuzhinengweidianwanghezhinengweirewang),shixianduonenghubu,shixiannengyuandetijiliyongxunhuanliyong,shixianlengredianqishuiyizhanshifuwu。qizhengtinengyuanliyongxiaolvhegongnengkekaolvdeyidafudutigao,yonghukexiangshouduozhongnengyuantaocanshifuwu,zhengfukechuangxinnengyuanguanlifangshi,shiyizhonganquanxianjindechengshigongnengmoshi。

tuer zonghenengyuanxitongjiagoushiyitu

xiangjiaoyulianheguotichudequyunengyuangainian,zonghenengyuangengqiangdiaonengyuanyuchengshironghefazhan,qiangdiaonengyuangongyinghehuanjingzhilixiangjiehe,qiangdiaoduonenghubu、tijiliyong、xunhuanliyong,qiangdiaoyuanwanghechuxietongliandong,qiangdiaonengyuanyizhanshifuwu,tajuyousigexianmingtedian:

yishishixianhuanjingyouxiandekechixufazhan。zonghenengyuantongguozhinengweidianwang、zhinengweirewanghechunengjishudeyingyong,zuidaxiandudishiyongkezaishengnengyuan。tongguotongchouguihuahejianshechulichengshiwufei(baokuowushui、shenghuolaji、canchulaji、wunideng)deshizhengjichusheshi,shinengyuangongyingyuchengshijichusheshixiangronghe,yuhuanjingzhilixiangjiehe,jiangchengshiwufei、yuredengyuanbenfeiqideziyuanzhuanbianweikeyiliyongdenengyuan。

ershishixiannengyuangongyingdekekaoanquanjingji。zonghenengyuanzhongshikekaoanquanjingjideyongnengcelve,gaibianyiwangguofenyilaihuoqiangdiaomouyizhongnengyuandezuofa,genjubutongnengyuandebingfu,anzhaoduonenghubu、lengredianqishuiyitihuadesilu,youxianliyongdangdikezaishengnengyuan(chengshiwufeinengyuan、taiyangneng、qiancengdireneng、zhongshencengdirenengdeng),jinliangjianshaohuashinengyuanshiyongliang。zonghenengyuanzhangongcheng+zhihuinengyuanweiwangxitongcaiyonggongre、gongleng、gongdian、gongqi、gongshuideyitihuasheji,xiangjiaoyulengredianqishuifenbiejiansheyitaoxitong,bujinkeyouxiaojiangdisheshitouziheyunweichengben,erqiekedafutigaonengyuanliyongxiaolv。duitongyigegongnengxitong,genjubutongnengyuandebingfu、shulianghejiage,liyongzhihuinengyuanweiwangxitong,linghuodiaozhengyongnengcelve,shixianjiaogaodeyunxingxiaolv,zuodaoanquanyunxinghejingjiyunxingdedongtaipingheng。

sanshishixiannengyuanjichusheshidefenbuwanggehuabuju。zonghenengyuangaibianyiwangnengyuanjichusheshidajizhongdezuofa,genjuchengshigongnenghebujuyijilengrefuhefenbutedian,fenquguihuahejianshenengyuangongyingjichusheshi,xingchengyizonghenengyuanzhanweijiediandewanggehuabuju,zuidachengdudejiejinyongnengfuhezhongxin,suoduangongnengjuli。wanggehuadezonghenengyuanxitong,jikeyidanwangyunxing,yenenggouduowangbingxing,bujintigaozhenggegongnengxitonganquanxing,jianshaorongyu,erqiekeyigenjuchengshijianshebujuhejindufenkuaijianshefenbuyunxing,jiangditouziqiangdu。

sishishixianduozhongnengyuanzaiyuan、wang、he、chudejinmihudong。weitigaonengyuanxitongdehuanjingkechixuxingheanquankekaoxing,bingjiangdinengyuanjiage,zonghenengyuanxitongdeshengchan、chuanshu、cunchuheshiyong,chongfenliyongbuduanjinbudezhihuinengyuanjishu,dadaoguihua、sheji、yunxingheguanlidexitonghua、jichenghuahejingxihua。

三、智慧能源技术是综合能源的关键

zonghenengyuanshiyizhongnengyuanjiagongzhuanhuanfangshi,shiyizhongxinxingjichusheshi,shiyizhongquanxinfuwumoshi。zonghenengyuanfazhanyuzhihuinengyuanjishufazhanjinmixiangguan。muqianzhihuinengyuanjishuyanjiuheyingyonghaichuyuqibujieduan(biaoyi),guoneiwaixuezhejiangzhihuinengyuanjishudejililijiewei:duoleifuheguanlian、ouheyuanjianhubu、nengyuanwangluohudong、xinxingshangyemoshi、renweiganraoyinsu,wanchengduozhongnengliuouhehudong。

biaoyi zhihuinengyuanjishudeguoneiwaiyanjiujihuabiao(buwanquantongji)

哒坪胎congmuqianguoneiwaiyanjiuchengguokan,zhihuinengyuanjishuyingyong,xuyaojianliduozhongnengyuanxinxicaijihechuanshusheshi、zhinengnengyuanguanlixitong(shiyinggeleinengyuandiaoduxitongxuqiudezhichengpingtai)。zhenggexitongruanjianyoushangyongshujukuruanjian、xitongzonghepingtai、yingyongzixitongdengbufenzucheng,caiyongkaifangshifenbuyingyonghuanjing,tongguoshujucaijihejiankong、shishijianmoyuzhuangtaiganzhi、youhuadiaodukongzhi、anquanfenxiheyujingdengruanyingjian,shixiangongnenganquanbaozhang、duozhongnengyuanshujujiance、duozhongnengyuanouheguanli、zonghenengyuanyouhuadiaodu、jingjixiaoyifenpeihehetongnengyuanguanlidemubiao。

哒坪胎nengyuanxinxicaiji、chuanshuheshujuchulisheshi,caiyonghulianwang、gaosukuandaiyidongtongxinwangluo、wulianwangdengjishu,jianshelengredianqishuidengduozhongnengyuanxinxicaijizhuangzhihetongxunchuanganwangluo,gouchengzonghenengyuanxitongyunxingdezhongshushenjing,weizhihuinengyuanguanlixitongtigongshujuzhichi。tongshi,jianshezonghenengyuanshujuzhongxin,xietongchuliduonengliushuju。

xiangduiyudanyidianlidiaoduguanlixitong,zhihuinengyuanguanlixitongweiduozhongnengyuanxitongdeouhetigongyitaowanzhengdezhinengyunxingguanlijiejuefangan,zhuyaotediantixianzaizonghe、zhineng、anquanhechuangxinsigefangmian。qizhong,“zonghe”tixianzaicongyuanlaidedanyidianlinengliangguanlishengjiweileng、re、dian、qi、shuidengnengyuandezongheguanli,congdianyuandianwangnengliangguanlishengjiweiyuan-wang-he-chuxietongguanli 。“zhineng”tixianzaicongrengongdaozidongkongzhi,conglixiandaozaixianguanli,congcufangdaojingxidefazhanmoshi,tongguotigongnengyuanshujufuwu,tigaozhengfujuecedekexuexing,tishengyonghuyongnengtiyanhejienengshuiping。“anquan”tixianzaigeleinengyuantongyishengchandiaoduhegongying,nengyuanshujutongyicaiji、yanpan、yuce、gongxiang,tongchoujienengheyouhuagongneng,shixiangenggaoshuiping、genggaoxiaolvdeanquangongneng。“chuangxin”tixianzaijinmijiehexinxihuaqianyanjishu(biruyunjisuanpingtai、dashuju、“hulianwang+”deng),yijishuchuangxinweijichushixianfuwumoshichuangxin。

keyikanchu,zhihuinengyuanjishuyuzonghenengyuangaoduxiangguan,shizonghenengyuanshixianzhinenghua(huozhihuihua)deguanjiansuozai,shinengyuanfuwuhenengyuanguanlixiandaihuadeguanjiansuozai。

si、zonghenengyuandejibengouchengheguihuashili

yibanlaijiang,zonghenengyuanchongfenliyongshudiwushuihezhongshuineng、lajifenshaochuliyure、shujuzhongxinhebiandianzhanpaire、taiyangneng、direneng、kongqineng、heshuihaishuinengdengdipinweinengyuan,yidianli、tianranqi、qingnengdengweizhugonggaopinweinengyuan,zhuyaotongguojianshezonghenengyuanzhangongcheng+zhihuinengyuanweiwanggongcheng,liyongxianjinrebeng、weixingranjidengjishuduinengyuanjinxingjiagongzhuanhuan,shixianchengshilengredianqishuidezonghegongji。

哒坪胎yiguoneimouzhihuishengtaixiaozhendezonghenengyuanguihuaweili,jiyu“lvse、jieneng、xunhuan、zhihui”dexiaozhenguihuadingwei,nengyuangongjikaolvnengyuanyuchengshironghefazhan,chongfenwajuechengshizishenqianzangnengliang,ouhechengzhenhuanjingzhili、shuihuanjingjihaimianchengshijianshe,xiaonachengshiwufei,dazaoweilaichengshixinxingjichusheshideyangban,zaimanzuxiaozhennengyuanxuqiudetongshishixianshengtaihexie(biaoer)。

哒坪胎biaoer shengtaizhihuixiaozhenyongnengcelveguihua

哒坪胎xitonggouchengcongxuqiucechufa,anzhaoduonenghubu、tijiliyongxingshi,jiansheyinengyuanzhongxin(zonghenengyuanzhan)、zhinengweidianwang、zhinengweirewangweihexin,yizhihuinengyuanguanliweiniudaideduoyuanxiediao、duowangronghedezonghenengyuanxitong(tusan)。

tusan mouzhihuishengtaixiaozhenzonghenengyuanguihuabujushiyitu

yulengredianqishuifenkaigongyingdechengshichuantonggongnengmoshixiangbijiao,zhihuishengtaixiaozhenzonghenengyuandeguihuanengyuanxiaohaozongliangjianshao10%,renjuneryanghuatanpaifangliangjianshao30%,guihuadezhengtinengyuanliyongxiaolvketigao70%yishang(da80%zuoyou);guihuadetouzi、chengbenhedianlixiaohaokejieyue10%yishang,bingdaliangjieyuehaoshuiliangheyongdiliang;youyucaiyongduonenghubufangshi,ketigaoxiaozhennengyuangongyingkekaodu,shixianchengshigongnengbuzhongduan,guihuagongdiankekaolvdayu99.99%;zhengfuyituozonghenengyuanxitongchuangxinguanlifangshi,tuidongnengyuantizhijizhichuangxin,yonghuxiangshouduozhongnengyuantaocanshifuwu、lengredianqishuiyizhanshifuwu。

guihuashejideshangyemoshishicaiyongshiyongzhefufeipppmoshi,tongguozhengfushouyutexujingyingquan,xiangyonghushouqupeitaofeijinengyuanshiyongfeidefangshihuodeshouyi。

五、综合能源是能源高质量发展的有力抓手

哒坪胎zongguanshijienengyuanfazhanqushi,deyiyuzhihuinengyuanjishufazhandezhuli,nengyuanshengchanyuxiaofeidebianjiejiangzhujianmohu,nengyuanxiaofeicehegongjicequjin“jianmian”。weizhongdianjiejuewoguonengyuanchanyeliantiaobuzhangcengcibugao、nengyuanshengchanxingfuwudengpeitaochanyefazhanzhihou、nengyuanyuchengshironghefazhanfangmianjibenkongbaidewenti,weilaiyingyituiguangnengyuanxinjishuxinyetaixinmoshiweizhuyaozhuashou。

weituidongzhiliangbiange、xiaolvbiange、donglibiange,weidalikaifakezaishengnengyuan、dahaoanquangaoxiaoliyongkezaishengnengyuandejichutiaojian,nengyuanxingyedezhuanxingshengjihechuangxinfazhanbixuzhuruxinhuoli。congmuqiandeyanjiuheguihuachengguokan,zaichengshihekaifaquguangfanbujuzonghenengyuanzheiyixinxingnengyuanjichusheshi,tuiguangzonghenengyuanliyongfuwutixiheyunguanxitong,zhidinghebuduanwanshangezhonglei、gequyu、gecengjidezonghenengyuanxitongshuzihuabiaozhuntixi,peitaochutaizonghenengyuanguanlibanfahetizhijizhichuangxincuoshi,jiangzhulitishengwoguonengyuanyuchengshironghefazhanshuiping,dafutigaonengyuanliyongxiaolvhefuwushuiping,youliyuzainengyuanshengchan、shusong、cunchu、yingyonghefuwudengquanchanyelianshangshixianlvse、anquan、gaoxiao,yinlingzhongguonengyuanjinrugaozhiliangfazhanjieduan。

哒坪胎 i genjuguojiatongjiju、guojianengyuanju、zhongguodianliqiyelianhehuigongbudetongjishujuzhengli。

哒坪胎 ii lianheguohuanjingguihuashu《chengshiquyunengyuan:chongfenjifanengyuanxiaolvhekezaishengnengyuandeqianli》(2015)。

 iii panmingming 《jiyufeihezuoboyidenengyuanhulianwangduoyuanzhutixingweifenxifangfa》(huabeidianlidaxue,2017)。

 iv libingsen、wufan《nengyuanhulianwangdefazhanxianzhuangyuqushiyanjiu》(《zhinengjisuanjiyuyingyong》,2017)。

 v gaohan、liujichundeng《quanqiunengyuanhulianwangxiashudianzoulangguihuafenxiyanjiu》(《sichuandianlijishu》,2017)。

 vi dapingtai《jichusheshigaozhiliangfazhanyanjiu》(2019)。